One of the most fascinating aspects of market/economic behavior is how the majority MUST be wrong in order to fuel the movement. There are loads of articles and forecasts questioning the recovery and how the world will collapse into a black hole. But if everyone is short dollars/long gold it will never happen. Tons […]

I have written about the 224 year cycle. These turning points have marked major changes in political trends. Sometimes society survives mostly intact because we blink such as the replacement of monarchy in Britain or the overthrow of the king in Rome giving birth to the Republic in 509 BC and the birth of Democracy […]

QUESTION: OK you were right about gold. But your idea that money can be intangible without inflation I am not sure about. Are there any examples? ANSWER: Plenty. Aside from the fact that money was ALWAYS intangible in Asia and in Ancient Egypt before Alexander the Great’s conquest in 334BC, there are examples in Europe […]

COMMENT: I’ve found a very good point in one of your writings “there are panics that are local such as 1792, 1837, 1869, 1893, 1907 just to name a few and then there are those that are contagions that are global such as 1857, 1873, 1929, 1987 and 2007. Sometimes the contagion began in Europe […]

QUESTION: Hi Marty, Has the ECM failed to predict events in the past? If so, which ones and were you able to modify to address the flaw? If not, what event(s) would need to occur to disprove the validity of the ECM? Best Regards, Kyle ANSWER: No. It is a composite of everything, not anything […]

QUESTION: Can there be a recovery with rising unemployment? There seems to be some who say that is impossible. ANSWER: This is the entire problem with analysis. There is NEVER a standard answer because the truth is far more complex. The common mistake in analysis is man’s desire to reduce everything to a single one-dimensional […]

COMMENT: Marty – You are correct I believe in regards to Germany during the 1919-1923 period and even beyond…It was taken over by the Bolsheviks. You’ve alluded to the revolutionary Marxist takeover and government in Germany at this time…a fact many people probably aren’t aware of.   Also, what many don’t realize is that CHAOS […]

  Resolving Globally Active, Systemically Important, Financial Institutions A joint paper by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Bank of England   10 December 2012           Resolving Globally Active, Systemically Important, Financial Institutions Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Bank of England     Executive summary   The financial crisis […]

The civil war in Syria has long-reaching consequences for the whole region. However, nothing is more serious than making the same mistake twice. While it is popular to demonize both the leaders of Syria and the former leader of Iraq Saddam Hussein, what both did was keep the religious zealots in check. The consequences for […]

  1929 Suicide Jumpers Whenever there is a deep economic decline with the economy imploding into a black hole of deflation, suicides skyrocket. The high cost of massive unemployment in Europe leads to massive desperation. As this erupts on a greater scale, what comes bursting forth is civil unrest and revolution. I cannot stress enough […]