If there was ever any question that this is a bond bubble with a 5,000-year low in interest rates, the final bit of insanity just took place. Italy managed to sell its first 50-year bond last week as investors were betting that the European Central Bank might soon add ultra-long debt to its asset-purchase stimulus […]

QUESTION: Is there a correlation between the GDP rate and interest rate ? Best regards, BL ANSWER: No. What central bankers fail to take into consideration is that the interest rate is the OPPORTUNITY COST of money as reflected into the future. This is why interest rates naturally decline during a recession because of the future expectation of what […]

Janet Yellen’s remarks today confused the people who think the world turns on the Jobs numbers since they remain clueless with respect to the changing trend in employment. They do not take into consideration the technology shift, so they are still trying to trade from 20th-century concepts. Yellen gave an outlook of the U.S. economy […]

QUESTION:  Martin– Your models seem to predict a Trump win. Given Trump’s stated preference for low interest rates, how does that jive with rates needing to go up to normalize things and save pensions in the next year or two? Would the Fed have to give in to President Trump? Thanks! RK ANSWER: Keep two […]

COMMENT: Marty, well it looks like you have done it. The central banks are going to start raising interest rates right in line with your model. It is interesting how your computer puts the entire world before you to see. Keep up the good work. They obviously are starting to follow you. SS REPLY: I […]

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I think I am starting to see the light you have been shining. Negative interest rates really are “completely insane”. I also now see that months after you wrote about central banks were trapped, others are now just starting to entertain the idea. Is this distinct difference in your views that eventually […]

QUESTION: Marty; as you know I have worked on the bond desk and am now looking to get out and retire. You are so right. The 10 year is the old 30 year and nobody buys the 10 year with any expectation of holding it for 10 years. The debt has been sold only because of […]

Reuters has reported that Yellen told a House of Representatives committee when testifying before Congress: “Potentially anything – including negative interest rates – would be on the table. But we would have to study carefully how they would work here in the U.S. context.” Yellen may have been placating Congress, for negative rates would wipe out the […]

QUESTION: Will higher interest rates hurt gold if they reflect demand for money and inflation? ANSWER: Analysts have said that higher interest rates would hurt gold because gold does not pay interest, making it a less attractive investment. This just does not stack up. Rates rose into 1981 and gold rose into 1980. The exponential […]

We have warned that capital is in a flight to quality, therefore creating the bubble in government paper. We also warned that the bond market on the long-term peaked in April/May and that we should expect a further rally in the short-end. This significant move has unfolded right before our eyes. The fact that the bonds have […]