Computer models typically fail for the same reason why human forecasting from a gut personal perspective becomes a joke. In both cases, if there is no experience with the past, neither can possibly forecast the future. Such models have failed because they lack the historical database on a global scale. How is it possible to […]

QUESTION: Dear Mr. Armstrong, I think this would help readers. I kind of don’t get it. How does the decrease in international velocity of money lead to the youth not having jobs? I don’t see the causation. — Cheers, PC ANSWER: The VELOCITY of money is how fast people are spending and using money – its turnover rate. The […]

The problem with Europe is rather simple. It is run by lawyers who have no clue about how the economy functions. They believe they need only write a law an shazam – the economy will do whatever they command. Once the Bunds broken through the 15620 level, the crash began to move down rapidly to […]

To my surprise, posters are appearing for THE FORECASTER on the streets around cities across Germany. The film will open in Berlin shortly. The significance of this film has been (1) illustrating that there is a business cycle and (2) that there has been something more than just isolated market manipulations. The implications for the mere […]

The trend towards using terrorism as the excuse to shutdown money and to monitor the general public continues. Authorities are looking closely at eliminating paper money altogether, which would have the benefit of preventing bank runs. This trend is being introduced in France come September, where it will become illegal to purchase anything with more […]

People from more than 44 countries have been watching the VOD screening of “The Forecaster”. To show the film, the producers had to get permission from the distributors, because rights were sold to theaters and TV. The film is blocked in many countries in Europe right now, but the distributors have agreed to allow the […]

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, On one of your blogs yesterday you wrote the most chilling comment I’ve ever read on your site, to the effect that you don’t want to live in the world that we’re going into (provided we get there, of course). It’s most chilling for a host of obvious reasons, as well as […]

Iranian Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has come out and told the world that two American officials threatened military action against Iran if there was no resolution to the nuclear deal talks. He states that Iran will not succumb to U.S. threats and he will not press forward with negotiations with Western powers under the shadow of […]

I have been doing a lot of interviews in Germany, from TV and radio, to newspapers and magazines. It is clear that they are starting to get the message that this is not about opinion. Every economist has recognized that there is a business cycle. The approach has been starkly different from medicine. Instead of […]

A lot of people are jumping on board, claiming the problem is fractional banking and the private creation of money, which is somehow wrong, should be handed to government. Money has ALWAYS been private, for it is an agreement between two people to exchange whatever for some common item everyone else agrees to accept. That has been […]