The Gold backwardation has been distorted as all sorts of reasons for everything. Normally, this is the market condition wherein the price of a forward or futures contract is trading below the expected spot price at contract maturity. Consequently, the resulting futures or forward curve is “inverted” whereby it is negative because gold is trading […]

We have researched absolutely everything that ever moves. We have correlated EVERYTHING and probably spent way too much money on this sort of thing than would make economic sense. But it has been a passion – a quest to figure out how things really move. Economics has assumed the world is still flat. Research approaches […]

China is set to use swelling offshore holdings of its tightly-managed currency worth around 1 trillion yuan $160 billion (106.33 billion pounds) to justify a landmark shift in tactics to relax capital controls. People’s Bank of China (PBOC) will abandon a time-table approach to liberalizing China’s capital controls. Instead, they are adopting a series of […]

A reader wrote: “Martin’s latest post says real estate will rise, but a chart posted a week ago predicts dire things for real estate after 2015.  Which is it? Can you ask him please!” Real Estate is the most difficult to talk about because it is so diverse lacking a single market. My post saying […]

Obama keeps turning to speaking engagements blasting the Republicans and refuses to negotiate with them despite the poles show that 59% now believe he should be staying in Washington. There is another agenda going on that is becoming very obvious to real political observers. Obama is pushing the  gun controls and more taxes in order […]

Some question about Sovereign Defaults and how often they occur seem to assume the the Age of New Economics ushered in by Keynes eliminated that possibility and besides, it only took place once in 1931. Even within the United States, the federal government promised to honor the debt of the Continental Congress. They did not. […]

About Time! The SPENDING CUTS will go into effect! The ONLY jobs impacted will be government that COST a fortune and produce NOTHING. This will help the dollar in light of Japan and Europe. The impact on the economy comes from the rise in taxes he signed into place to start with. WHY if he […]

I have explained the Golden Rule of Corrections. Once you extend in anything beyond a time unit of 3, you are then in a change in trend. The Greek recession, and most of the Western World, began in 2007. We began with the Greek Debt Crisis precisely to the day on the Pi Target from […]

First: Hamilton’s comment demonstrates that EVEN the Federalists were more respectful of the limitations on government than what we have today. Of course, Jefferson’s arguments would be the best. That is not the point. The point is even the worst at the birth of the USA was far better than what we have today. Secondly, […]

Those who are new readers are probably unfamiliar with what I have called the Golden Rule of Reactions.  When it comes to TIMING, it is vital to understand the basic tenets of cyclical analysis. That fundamental principle is where do we draw the line between a change in trend and a mere reaction. That line […]