Trying to understand forecasting will be critical as we move forward. The HUGE turning point appears to be 2018 and that is most likely when things will start to come unglued. How do I even make such a statement? This is not a claim that I make based upon some gut feeling. I arrive at […]

Some ask why I only criticize the left and not the right. As the Guardian wrote, the left is on the rise. There are 50 shades between left and right. If we are talking about the 1%, that is really small business, for that begins at $250,000 annual income. Everyone confuses the 1% with the “super-rich” who are […]

As we approach 2017, the euro appears far worse than anyone could imagine. The biggest hypocrite is actually Mario Draghi who is outrageously managing the European Central Bank (ECB). To make this as plain as possible, the ECB is the largest individual creditor of the euro countries, and is thus a bank that is undermined completely by the poor creditworthiness of the […]

The Scandinavian countries Sweden, Denmark and Norway are regarded as a pioneer in the the effort to eliminate money and move totally electronic. Denmark closed its final Mint outsourced the operation to Finland. This means that there is no coinage in the three states struck anymore. In this war on cash, about 20% of all transactions were […]

QUESTION #1: Dear Mr Armstrong, you recently wrote that if you are in any bond fund, better get out. Do you also mean corporate short-term/medium-term bonds or are those expected to rise when people realise government debt is the real bubble ? Kind regards. WL. QUESTION #2:  Mr. Armstrong- I enjoyed my first WEC immensely! In […]

The key conversation was always going to be surrounding the Federal Reserve rate decision today despite any data releases. In Japan we saw the release of the Tankan (sentiment survey) which, at 10, repeated the same level as previous release as the Nikkei closed almost unchanged on the day. The Hang Seng was a similar […]

This week will all be about the Federal Reserve and the outlook for rates into next. The strip is pricing in additional moves already but it is the long end that is having a worrying impact on many dealers. Obviously, the recent curve movement is music for the (US) banks and insurance companies but will […]

Today, any information ahead of something like a rate hike is seen as insider trading. But back during the 1970s going into 1981, things were different. The banks were not big proprietary traders. I would routinely get a call that the Fed would raise rates in 15 minutes. It was not that someone was trying […]

The Nikkei closed today at its highest level for the year which included a well behaved Yen. Closing up +268 points (+1.45%) certainly puts it in good shape for the year end rally. Shanghai and Hang Seng were mutually off-set (+0.2%/-0.2%) with many just waiting for the ECB rate decision and being led by the […]

China continues to sell US Treasury bonds trying to keep the dollar down to aid the Federal Reserve. Saudi Arabia, however, has been in a different position having to liquidate US Treasury holdings for they are is a serious financial crisis. September shows a modest sale of $46 billion dollars. Private investors sales were $7.9 […]