QUESTION: Can there be a recovery with rising unemployment? There seems to be some who say that is impossible. ANSWER: This is the entire problem with analysis. There is NEVER a standard answer because the truth is far more complex. The common mistake in analysis is man’s desire to reduce everything to a single one-dimensional […]

QUESTION: “So Deutsche Bank is bankrupt and US investment and commercial banks are at big risk from rising yields, but all the stock prices are still going up because people will trust owning Goldman or Barclays stocks over owning government bonds???” ANSWER: I seriously doubt that bank stocks will do well. During the Sovereign Debt […]

Most of the forecasts now target gold in the 1050 range. This generally means that we could overshoot and crack $1,000 shifting the sentiment decisively negative. This will be POSITIVE long term for just as the talking heads disbelieved the rise in the Dow even as it made new highs laughing how this time they […]

  Resolving Globally Active, Systemically Important, Financial Institutions A joint paper by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Bank of England   10 December 2012           Resolving Globally Active, Systemically Important, Financial Institutions Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Bank of England     Executive summary   The financial crisis […]

Thomas Jefferson included among the injuries inflicted by the King in the Declaration of Independence the trick of creating a multitude of agencies. He wrote: He has erected a multitude of New Offices, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harrass our people, and eat out their substance. One reason the SEC and CFTC hate […]

The rise in interest rates will have a major impact upon commercial and investment banks. Believe it or not, their models are incapable of forecasting major changes in trend. They are far too short-term oriented and are created by quants with no real historical debt. That was the subject of When Genius Failed: The Rise and […]

The civil war in Syria has long-reaching consequences for the whole region. However, nothing is more serious than making the same mistake twice. While it is popular to demonize both the leaders of Syria and the former leader of Iraq Saddam Hussein, what both did was keep the religious zealots in check. The consequences for […]

Gold tumbled about 3% after positive US jobs data sent the dollar rallying and rekindled worries the Federal Reserve could be tempted to scale back its monetary stimulus later in the year. I have warned that the US economic outlook is bullish into 2015.75. The dollar will rise and that will help turn the US […]

QUESTION: Today employment came with 195K. 1- If Europe is imploding, China slowing, Emerging markets slowing, is the US employment story sustainable? 2- After the governments bond collapse beyond 2015.75, could USA devalue the dollar and make a combination of bond default with a new currency? 3- Is physical gold in the allocated form in a […]

When Diocletian (284-305AD) came to power after the Great Monetary Collapse of the 3rd Century, he sought to restore the economy even reintroducing silver coins. However, to accomplish that he imposed aggressive taxation and invented passports since you could not travel leaving your town unless you paid your taxes. This is exactly what is in […]