Three regional Federal Reserve officials have called on the central bank to stop buying mortgage-backed bonds, citing the recent improvement in the U.S. housing market. Indeed, the US economy has improved and the rise in the stock market has the talking head talking to themselves in disbelief. The 800 pound monkey remains the German elections […]

QUESTION: What is a cycle inversion? This reaction period of 2 to 3 years how do you know it will extend or not? ANSWER: Cycles are turning points in time. You cannot always ascertain what the event will be a high or a low near-term. However, it is a turning point producing an event. Normally, […]

Germany is drawing a bright line between proprietary trading in banks and customer deposits. They are not merely separating the two, but they imposed criminal sentences for directors of banks and insurance companies if they fail to fulfill their supervisory duties in risk management or contravene an array of banking supervision. Germany will at least prosecute […]

Thank you for all the fan mail on the Dow to offset the hate mail on the metals. The objective is to expose the real world we live in and how domestic policy objectives are really held hostage to international capital flows. We are really trying hard to get everything up and running ASAP. Many […]

Because governments are trying to hunt down the “rich” in their desperate move for money, they are really destroying the world economy. A European cannot open an account at Merrill Lynch with a broker he personally knows in the USA. Any foreign customer must trade exclusively through their “international” desk. Why? So they can report on whatever […]

The Dow keeps pressing higher as the talking heads keep questioning why. Gold presses lower and Gold is below the 1400 level. A closing below 1402.50 on June today for gold will keep it vulnerable to the downside. If we get to retest the 1321 area, that will be extremely bearish and warn that new […]

The economic prospects for Europe are impossible to return to any real recovery. We are looking at a long-depression for Europe that will not bottom for 23-26 years from the 2007 peak making this turn only with the end of the current Private Wave in 2032.95. German politicians cannot grasp that imposing austerity that has […]

The biggest fund in the world was the Japanese Postal Savings Fund in 1989. When we were called in to create a hedging program about 6 months before the high, it was Japanese Ministry of Finance who picked up the phone and asked that they did not do that for if they sold, they would […]

QUESTION: If gold is a hedge against government, then that would explain why gold rose from 2007.15 to 2011.45, a period which your model shows lower confidence. If confidence in government is now rising, as predicted by your model, regardless of the inflation, people have confidence in QE, etc so will feel less need to […]

We are in one of the most complex conundrums in financial history. On the one hand we have vast amounts of cash that creates tremendous liquidity with interest rates at virtually zero, G7 finance ministers at least alarmed about the high level of liquidity yet it is becoming obvious even to them that monetary policy can not […]