US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent rebuked Moody’s lowered rating of US credit from AAA to AA1. “First of all, I think that Moody’s is a lagging indicator, and I think that’s what everyone thinks of credit agencies,” Bessent said. “Larry Summers and I don’t agree on everything, but he’s said that when they downgraded the […]

Conversations with the Master Forecaster This book is unlike anything you’ve read before. It’s not another theory — it’s a documented track record of how Martin saw what no one else did: ✅ Sovereign debt implosions ✅ War cycles and geopolitical shifts ✅ The coming collapse of trust in governments ✅ The timeline to 2032 — and […]

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, it is becoming obvious why the government has suppressed you, and others are trying to prevent people from listening to you. What has blown my mind is that you put out the ECM cycle on the Russian Ukraine War, and you had the date of May 15th published since 2022. The negotiations […]

June 2025 Webinars About our webinars: Due to the high demand and interest surrounding recent and upcoming significant turning points, we are offering another webinar on the Economic Confidence Model (ECM) and the global business cycle. While researching the fluctuations in prices, Martin Armstrong came across a list of international economic panics. Just for fun, he decided to explore the merits of cycle theory, and while researching, […]

QUESTION: Hey Martin, I’ve been receiving this question frequently—are there particular markets we should be focusing on, or is the upcoming ECM turning point more of a general signal across the board? The economic confidence model is due in early May, and could you please tell me what markets Marty says to focus on when it […]

The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its first estimate for US GDP in Q1, a 0.3% decline annually. The decline was mainly due to a sharp 41% uptick in imports as they are subtracted when calculating the final GDP figure. Pharmaceutical goods, medicines and vitamins, computers and parts drove imports in the […]

  Consumer confidence has tanked due to tariff fears. A Redfin survey conducted from April 10 to 14 found that nearly a quarter (24%) of American respondents have canceled major purchases, such as homes, due to tariffs, with an additional 32% stating they plan to delay any major purchases until they regain confidence in the […]

For all the criticism of Trump and the risk of a global trade war, as Macron wants to unleash a trade war to elevate France to the top of the EU, if we just look at the data, we can see why Trump has taken this approach. Even those Republicans like Rand Paul joining the […]

  QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I have followed Socrates for over a year now. I was told by friends you run the most unbiased site in the industry. I greatly appreciate how objective it really has been. What I am dumbfounded by is how, with the tension now with Iran and Trump’s ultimatum to Iran, even […]

  QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, Nobody has a computer that covers everything. Your forecast at the WEC that the Democratic Party would collapse is unprecedented. Nobody has even contemplated that such a thing could happen. Yet right now this is unfolding. The new polls from NBC News and CNN. The former poll showed that only 27% of Americans held […]