QUESTION: In the video that you just share about the Model, you explain that you programmed Socrates to look at the whole world and “analyze” (this is key) the word analyze, if I understand programming a computer is a a bunch of If then or For Next, how do you program a computer to “Analyze” something, I don’t mean to prey but is there another way to program a computer that I am not aware of?. You make it seem like Socrates has a super brain and is Analyzing on his own without following any rules, if that is the case, how can a computer do that.
Thank you for all you do, you really make my brain jump and my eyebrows get together not to mention all the frowning trying to understand the HOW.
NM.
ANSWER: Programming is an art. Two programmers may write a program with the same end result, but their code is completely different. Even when I go back to look at the code I wrote, it is not easy. I have to clear my head and keep notes as to how I approached a problem at a particular junction. It is extremely complex, and I have to clear my mind. But to create Socrates, it required that (1) I understood trading and (2) I also had to understand how to program at the assembler level. A trader trying to communicate his experience to a programmer is like speaking a different language without a translator. When he does not understand, he screams louder as if that will make a difference.
That simple line of code from BASIC, if then else, opened the door to everything. When I learned to code, it was before C language or anything else. We coded in assembler, and basic was a major advance. I wrote Socrates in BASIC and then optimized the code in assembler. The programmers I have today wanted to know why even all the data is in binary – not ASCII. I had to show them the way we used to code, and binary is so much faster.
All of these new languages that have come out compile their code back to assembler. They are higher levels to enable someone to understand coding better, but that code is then compiled to the assembler, and it then runs the computers. Most programmers today are unfamiliar with even how to optimize in assembler, as this assembler routine concerns file dates illustrated here. You have to understand the computer structure, and you are moving data (MOV) into registers to process it.
You cannot program in assembler without understanding CPU Registers. The role of Registers in Computer Organisation and Architecture is vital. They are like a scratch pad. They play a fundamental role in computer organization and architecture by providing the processor quick access to data and instructions. They are a part of the CPU’s internal control unit, responsible for managing the workflow and coordinating the operations of different components of a computer system.
I did not code rules. As a history buff, I took energy; it moved from olive oil to whale oil to crude oil. So, I did not code some rule that crude oil is the only energy source. For all I know, 100 years from now, it could be Azuki beans.
A human would consider interest rates, the stock market, taxes, and perhaps gold and currency to decide. Socrates correlates with absolutely everything. Is it a Super Brain? Perhaps. The reports it writes every day alone are over 1,000. There are not enough analysts in the world to match its output. I used it to restructure multinational companies. I became friends with Lady Thatcher because I directed companies that needed skilled labor to set up in Britain. The best tax deals for airlines I was sending to Ireland. The results from Socrates is far more than trading a single market.
It has so many ways of analyzing markets, and then it correlates them all from cyclical to the Global Market Watch (GMW), which is pattern recognition. It has cataloged over 100,000 different patterns. It is forecasting the entire world. In doing so, it is tracking capital flows. It even tracks real estate worldwide, interest rates, and politics.
The Global Market Watch was developed back in the early ’90s for one of our major portfolio clients so they could look at an entire sector without reading every report. You have to understand when managing heaps of money, you have to be on top of the entire world. The fact that Socrates covers everything, once a client is familiar with how it works, it is the same system applied globally. We have been doing this since 1981 and have the longest track record. People know us for our consistent forecasts.
This is not modern Machine Learning where you pray and hope the program will figure out how to trade all by itself. I had to put my own experience into this and teach it how to be an international hedge fund manager. You cannot leave it to chance.
I had no idea it would forecast wars. That is why I was accused of manipulating the world economy; they argued I had too much influence. That is just absurd. No market can be manipulated in isolation. All the bankers blew up in 1998 with Long-term Capital Management because they thought they could manipulate Russia. They failed and blamed me for having too much “influence,” which is what they tried to buy.
The Silver Democrats tried that in the 19th century, overvaluing silver, and they bankrupted the United States in 1896. That is when JP Morgan had to lend the US Treasury $100 million in gold. Overvaluing silver attracted silver to pour into the USA, which swapped it for gold that was then exported. Here is Puck Magazine, which shows the United States drowning in silver.
Everything will be arbitraged on a global scale. You cannot have gold at $2,000 in USA and $3,000 in London. They will buy the gold in NY and sell it in London. People who make up these manipulation stories have no real trading experience.
