QUESTION: Marty; This is what you explained at the last WEC. The risk of a false move on the yearly level. Correct?
ANSWER: Yes, it is always fractal. A Yearly False Move is rare, and it becomes the biggest possible slingshot to the upside. The Dow made a Yearly FALSE MOVE on a number of occasions. For example, the high of 1916 dropped from 8500 to 6590 and established the low in 1917. It then swung to the upside, reached new highs at 11960 in 1919, and then on the panic back down.
The Dow made its intraday high in 1889, which was followed by a one year panic into 1890. It then swung back to the highest yearly closing in 1892 with the famous Panic of 1893 immediately thereafter.
A similar pattern unfolded with a high in 1872, a panic penetrating the previous year’s low in 1873, and then a dramatic swing to new high the next year in 1874.
These are just a few examples.
Our Forecast Array on the Yearly Level warns of 2017 as a turning point. The year 2018 will be a Panic Cycle Year, and then there will be a reversal of fortune into the bottom of the ECM for 2020, followed thereafter by a turn in 2022. So, there is no TREND here as we look ahead. It looks much more like wild swings back and forth.
