QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I am impressed with your models and the cycle of war. What has truly astonished many of your readers in Eastern Europe is how you focused on Ukraine and said this is the flash point before anything happened and then you said wait until after the Olympics and then Russia will invade. How did you pick Ukraine to begin with? How is that possible? I assume your contacts even in Russia are beyond what many intelligence agencies are capable of. When you connect the dots, as you say, you were correct on the fall of Communism and even Russia in 1998 that led to the collapse of longterm credit. No wonder the bankers, press, and other analysts hate you. You are always on top of everything as you Americans say.
Best wishes for all you do and your battle against the New York banks and corrupt media.
KA
ANSWER: Thank you. Keep in mind this is but no way my OPINION. Personal opinions are worthless and trying to stand up and pretend your judgment is better than another is stupid for the variables are so complex, when opinion is correct, it is dumb luck. It may appear that I targeted Ukraine out of no where, but indeed Ukraine has a tremendous history and the Crimea is perhaps the most strategic tiny piece of land between Europe and Asia. It has been the breadbasket since ancient times as I wrote recently, but it was the flash point that devastated Europe previously.
There were warnings in the form of rumors that told of a great plague in China and India that killed most of the populations there. The plague made its way to Europe when the Kipchak forces were besieging the Genoese trading post in the Crimea. The Kipchaks began to catapult plague-infested corpses over the walls and into the trading post. The disease spread quickly and the Genoese abandoned the outpost. They sailed back to Europe stopping in Sicily in 1347 taking the Black Death with them.
Crimea has been the center of historical events for centuries, yet nobody seems to pay much attention to it. It has been settled, resettled, occupied, defended, and invaded perhaps more times than most countries. So from a pure data perspective, what is taking place is nothing new to history. This is all in a database that monitors one action and works out the path of reaction, kind of like plotting the path of a hurricane.
