COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; I was at that London Conference when you forecast that Russia would collapse in a matter of weeks based upon your model showing $100 billion inflow but $150 billion outflow. Whilst the heads of the major money center banks always assumed you were just too influential, for I worked in …. at that time, those of us on the trading side began to see the light after 1998. Your forecast on Russia shocked so many and the debate was influence or discovery in the local pub. [They]… had to take down PEI because they were convinced it was influence not discovery. Yet [they]… cannot keep you down because it is discovery and you have proven that to the world.
You have shown the world the path, but that path diminishes their power right down to manipulating markets if it is not influence. They hand out the Nobel Prize like candy to so many theories that are proven wrong a few years later. The assumption has always been you are influential rather than the discoverer of the truth with regard to how the economy and markets function. Your day will come, but sadly only when the West collapses. They cannot give you the Nobel Prize for that would confirm the heads of the banks, regulators, and politicians are all wrong and influence cannot win the day right down to the economic sanctions they toy with.
Keep up the good fight;
Cheers
AM
REPLY: Thank you very much. It is a battle for you are correct – it is all about their power (influence) and retaining that rather than going with the flow. The statement that seems to have surprised many that China is using our global approach to the economy and capital flow analysis is amazing. China gets it. That is why I was invited after 1997 and they stated then they saw the birth of the Euro as drawing in capital from Asia that set off the crisis. They acknowledged our capital flow models then, but said they could not politically state that was the cause of the Currency Crisis of 1997.
I think Bloomberg reported we were entering into a contract with China to do all the economic forecasting for them. Many in the West did not like that and they always preferred to just claim I manipulated the world by influence rather than discovering anything that confirmed they were wrong. It is NOT that I am so influential, it is not my opinion that matters, it is the model analysis. All these people will do is lead us into war. They did not understand the capital flows during the Great Depression and turned to protectionism to battle capital flows making everything worse.
It is shameful that the West is convoluted (invegalled) in such political corruption that they will destroy what we have before they will ever consider their approach is dead wrong. The so-called analytic community does not help matters by blaming their failures on conspiracies predicated upon influence. That merely blinds everyone from seeing the truth and perpetuates investigations by the very people who create the mess since they never investigate themselves as having any wrongful influence.
It is always a battle against the self-interest of government because they THINK influence is the key. They accused me of being TOO influential for their own failures. They only pray in silence for my death in hopes that will end my influence and then they will be right at last. They are just fools standing before a mirror and looking upon themselves as king. Our problem, we remain the victim of their delusions of greatness. The object that must endure their folly.
The statement in the central bank of China’s report that is making people realize they are looking at the world differently from the West understanding the interconnected global economy makes it very clear. This is the way to the future. A new dawn in economics really does await if we just open our eyes:
“The meeting stressed the need to conscientiously implement the party’s 18, the spirit of the Third Plenary Session of the eighth and the Central Economic Work Conference. Pay close attention to changes in the international and domestic economic and financial latest trends and international capital flows, insisted Wenzhongqiujin, innovation, continue to implement prudent monetary policy and maintain moderate liquidity, to achieve a reasonable growth of money and credit and financing social scale. Improve and optimize the financing structure and credit structure. Continue to deepen financial reform, enhance operational efficiency and financial capacity of the service of the real economy. Further promote the interest rate market and the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level.”
As announced at the conference, we will begin to publish maps showing the global capital flows so the entire world can see this is a whole new way of looking at everything. It has been tested my entire life live and back tested to the beginning of the rise and fall of empires.
