Poland’s Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski announced that his nation plans to increase its NATO spending from 4% of GDP to 5% “because we are no longer in the era of eternal post-Cold War peace.”
Sikorski admitted that Donald Trump was correct in stating that other NATO nations were failing to uphold their agreement. Trump famously threatened to leave the alliance if others continued to fail to meet their 2% of GDP targets. “He was right to insist Allies spend more, even in style, because when other presidents did it politely, it didn’t work,” Sikorski said, adding that Poland has been communicating with both Trump and Biden ahead of the US presidential election. Poland has taken quite a diplomatic stance on US politics as it carefully works toward remaining allies in the face of escalating warfare.
Poland increased military spending by 75% from 2022 to 2023, the largest spike among any nation. Poland contributed 2.39% of GDP to NATO ($16.57 billion) in 2022 before the war showed no signs of relenting. They then contributed 3.9% of GDP to NATO in 2023, raising it by 0.1% for this fiscal year to around $35 billion. Poland’s defense budget was only $8.5 billion in 2014 when the Crimea situation broke out, but that has increased to $27 billion if inflation levels from 2014 are factored in.
Only 11 NATO members currently meet the 2% target. Poland is on its way to contributing more of its GDP to the alliance than any other member, but they have the most lose due to proximity. Yet, they also have the most to lose as a direct result of NATO’s continued antagonization of Russia. Remember that Russia has agreed to completely end the war if NATO backs down and the Minsk Agreement is fulfilled. Everyone is operating under the falsehood that Russia wants to conquer all previous territories.
Polish leaders are also worried about China. “Yes, China could call its vassal Putin to order and tell him to end this war. And that is the position we convey to the Chinese leadership,” Sikorski said. Russia cannot surrender without being conquered by the west. China cannot intervene, and China has already become a target of NATO aggression due to its One China policy in addition to Russian support.
Poland believes it will operate in a deficit of up to 184 billion zlotys ($45 billion) in 2024 or 5.1% of GDP. The government will need to cut spending in other areas to support its military spending. Poland’s new government is delaying the income tax increase that is also planned to offset military spending. The US has provided Poland two loans, each for $2 billion, over the past two years through the Foreign Military Financing (FMF) program that Poland will be expected to pay back with interest. Poland is stretching itself thin through excessive military spending, but the Russian fear has overtaken all sensibility.
