The Euro

$ Euro sinking

The Euro continues to sink lower as the dollar has risen to eight-month highs on worries over tougher sanctions to be imposed upon Russia and their potential impact on the seriously weak Eurozone growth. The tax rates in Europe are simply insane and now even the German population must work MORE than half the year just to pay taxes. Governments are consuming way too much of everyone’s income and this is seriously causing the living standards to decline and the collapse in any new business development. The EU Commission is into everything. Austria and Germany are now rejecting the EU Commission’s plans to control the strict organic farming. According to the plans, farmers can no longer switch between organic and conventional farming in the future. Agriculture Minister Schmidt fears the closure of small and medium-sized organic farms denying they the ability to follow the demand of the consumer. With every step they take, the EU Commission simply destroys jobs and raises taxes. With every regulation, they hire more bureaucrats to then go our and audit. It just never ends.

IBEUUS-W 7-23-2014

The euro/dollar has broken down and there seems not much hope in sight. It is breaking the uptrend line and the oscillator has been turning down for weeks now. The plan is to just flood the market with Euros. France wants the Euro devalued sharply to be able to sell their products. Between that and any further escalation in of tensions between Russia and USA could weigh seriously on the euro. Europe is distinctly exposed to Russia through trade, especially Germany in particular. Putin has already ordered to get rid of all German cars in government so sanctions could potentially have a negative impact on the euro moving forward. However, since trade is a tiny part of the problem, the real issue seems that even Russians prefer to buy property in London rather than continental Europe. That capital inflow helps Britain – not Euro based countries.

IBEUUSFOR-W 7-23-2014

 

From a cyclical perspective, the week of August 4th is shaping up as a turning poinyt in many markets. A weekly closing below 13400 will signal this is starting to turn down on a broader sustained basis. There is some support at the 13298 level, but after that, the important support lies at the 13150 area. A monthly closing BELOW 13298 will signal we should eventually drop back to the 12700-129.00 level. A monthly closing BELOW 12750 will signal a bear market is in full bloom.

Plus, the Fed meeting is still poised to raise interest rates in the broader term compared to lowering them in the Eurozone.This is also more likely to add a firm support for the dollar. The US economy is still doing OK. Just try to make reservations for dinner on a weekend – really hard in New England area these days.

The Australian dollar was the largest mover of the major currencies, gaining 0.69 percent to US$0.9455 after a higher-than-expected reading of a key gauge of underlying inflation in June in Australia dented market speculation of future rate cuts Downunder as well. Meanwhile, the dollar did gain slightly against the British pound to US$1.7034, only after Bank of England minutes failed to boost expectations of an interest rate hike by year-end. Nevertheless, the Bank of England is more likely than not inclined to raise rates.

 

No Economic Decline in Washington – EVER

Obama-Earings

 

Housing in Washington never collapsed because it is supported by your tax dollars. Good or bad, the money flows to Washington. The very same hotel chain charges $200 in Philadelphia, $300 in New York City and $400 in Washington. It ain’t for the tourist. It’s for the sea of lobbyists. Since 2001, the president has earned a $400,000 annual salary, along with a $50,000 annual expense account, a $100,000 nontaxable travel account, and $19,000 for entertainment. Gee – forget what he seems to be making on the side, he is within that 1% he pretends to hate so much.

 

Preparing for War

malaysia_airlines_crash_ukraine_4-2014

The propaganda machine is in full force. Everything is used for political purposes regardless of the truth. Within mere days after the crash of a Malaysian Airlines flight over eastern Ukraine, US politicians and the government media joined together to spin the story that it was Russia who shot down the plane or their Russian supported rebels. It just had to be Putin everyone has declared. Obama even held a press conference to claim before any investigation Russia was responsible. His stooges, like ambassador to the UN Samantha Power, repeated the conclusion at the UN Security Council only one day after the crash showing this was predetermined. Moreover, it seems like Colin Powell telling the UN about the weapons of mass destruction. The only difference – Powell had integrity and when he found out he was lied to, the line was crossed.

Caesar-War

Any new claims that the Malaysian Airlines flight was shot down with a Russian missile means absolutely ZERO since the Ukrainian forces had the same weapons. Obama needs war because of the Sovereign Debt Crisis. The pensions are collapsing. Europe is screwed economically. The powers that be simply need war to hold on to power and they all know it. I would not believe a single word Obama has to say about anything. I see no difference between him. McCain, Lindsey Graham, or any other cold-hearted politician regardless of their party affiliation.

Obama-VA-Scandal

 

 

A Market Recap

GCNYNF-M 7-22-2014

 

The Markets are being bombarded from every direction fundamentally. The confusion is rising and so will the volatility. The euro is gradually declining, the stock market keeps holding, gold really cannot get out of its own way, and the 10 year rates remain low even in Germany. Capital is confused every which way from Sunday. Within Europe, people are buying the Germany assuming they get Deutsche marks when the Euro goes kaput. Others are still shifting to the States for diversification. Then we have rising bank fears so many in the big money crowd are also shifting to equities, and we have central banks buying equities to diversify from purely US government debt in dollars.

In Gold the Weekly Reversals define the trading range 142399 and 135500 on the upside and 124120 followed by 118870 on the downside.

Israeli & Hamas

israeli-warplanes-2

The War Cycle has been amazingly spot on. Even those who were skeptics are sending in emails asking what is going to happen now. War is brewing both civilly and internationally and in every area around the globe. The Middle East is brewing as well with the FAA imposing a 24-hour ban on US flights to Israel that is being followed by many European airlines also suspending flights. The sirens have been sounding in the south and central Israel and in the West Bank. The EU has called for disarmament of Hamas, but we all know that is just words. The UN chief has urged Israel to exercise restraint with more than 600 Palestinians are being reported dead.

The Energy Hidden Agenda?

OilRig

We are getting info from reliable sources that there may be another layer to the USA v Russian conflict. Just as the entire Syrian agenda was to arm terrorists to topple the Syrian government in order to push through a pipeline to cut off the energy monopoly in Europe held by Russia, we may be actually seeing another motive here. The projections of fracking technology that the USA will become a net exporter of energy has set the stage for another perhaps covert move – sanctions against Russia to open the European market for energy. In this new war of words and sanctions against Russia, it is the Americans who seem to be marching either totally brain-dead, or with another energy secret agenda. This very well just may be all about one thing -:taking the Russian energy market from them. To turn off Russia as a competitor, the Russian president is to be internationally isolated. The shooting down of flight MH17 is playing into this agenda and comes precisely at the right moment to aid the US strategy on energy. We will keep you advised on this matter.

Global Warming Crowd Now Argue It is Cycles That Mask the Warming Trend?

Sunrise-11

 

The Global Warming crowd is now desperately trying to counter-act the data that says they are quite frankly about as credible as the old Y2K crowd back in 2000. The data have clearly shown that they have lied, manipulated, and outright carried out a major fraud upon society. They argue that man has altered the entire planet in just a few decades which is like focusing on a 7 day reaction in a bear market and declaring it’s really a bull market. The theory is totally unsound simply from a realistic research perspective.

The fact that surface temperatures have not warmed over the past 17 years showing that their climate models are unreliable, is now amazingly being refuted with quick new research led by James Risbey. In just a matter of weeks, he is leading the charge demonstrating his clearly predisposed bias. Risbey now excuses their nonsense of models that have overestimated global warming with a slapped together study published in Nature Climate Change asserting that their models actually generate good estimates of recent and past trends provided they also took into account natural variability known as El Nino-La Nina phases in the Pacific. OOPS! Cycles?

It is just amazing how these people are so sold on claiming millions of years can be altered in just a few decades like a 7 day rally in the middle of the Great Depression. Risbey is clueless obviously that cycles exist or how they function and claiming that the oceans are absorbing the heat so we do not feel it is clever. Effective he states he would be right but for El Nino-La Mina phases. OMG – is this cycles? He actually states: “You’re always going to get periods when the warming slows down or speeds up relative to the mean rate because we have these strong natural cycles”.

So lets see, there are roughly 30-year cycles (Pi cycle 31.4 years) whereby the Pacific alternates between periods of more frequent El Ninos – when the ocean gives back heat to the atmosphere – to La Ninas, when it acts as a massive heat sink, setting in train relatively cool periods for surface temperatures. This has been taking place before the Industrial Revolution. Violent storms were far worse at the bottom on the 300 year cycle in the energy output of the sun in the 18th century.

The record of the biggest hurricane seasons in the Atlantic since the start of the 20th century reveals only a cycle, not a progressive trend escalating that builds like a bull market.

1. 1950 8
2. 2005 7
3. 1999 6
3. 1996 6
3. 1964 6
3. 1961 6
3. 1955 6
3. 1926 6

By selecting climate models in phase with natural variability, Risbey is desperately trying to argue the global warming core trend is correct. Quite frankly, a few decades does not cut it. In market forecasting, this is no different from following Black–Scholes model that led to the Long-Term Capital Management collapse in 1998 when Genius Failed because they tested the model with data only back to 1971.

Even looking at the historical record of storms, none of the worst even took place during the 20th century.

Where-Year-Deaths

Gulf of Mexico 1590 1,000
Nicaragua 1605 1300
Straits of Florida 1622 1090
Cuba and Florida 1644 1500
Caribbean 1666 2000
Barbados 1694 1000+
Bahamas 1715 1,000 – 2,500
Martinique 1767 1,600
Havana 1768 43 – 1,000
Newfoundland August 29 – September 9, 1775 North Carolina, Virginia, Newfoundland 4,000 – 4,163
Pointe-à-Pitre Bay 1776 6,000+
San Calixto October 9–20, 1780 Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Bermuda 27,501+
Gulf of Mexico 1780 2,000
Jamaica and Cuba 1780 42 – 1,090
Florida 1781 2,000+
Central Atlantic 1782 3,000+
“Cuba” Hurricane 1791 30 – 3,000
“Martinique 1813 3,000+
Caribbean 1824 372 – 1,300+
Barbados–Louisiana August 10–17, 1831 Barbados, Puerto Rico, Cuba, Louisiana 1,500 – 2,500
Risbey stated: “The climate is simply variable on short time scales but that variability is superimposed on an unmistakable long-term warming trend.”

Risbey claims that the skeptics have lately relied on a naturally cool phase of the global cycle to fan doubts about climate change, the fact temperature records continue to fall even during a La-Nina dominated period is notable. Yet his argument reveals his own mistake – HELLO THERE ARE CYCLES. He boldly states that the temperature rising from the build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere “is beginning to overwhelm the natural variability on even shorter decadal time scales”. Quite frankly, he lacks any historical evidence long-term to support any such conclusion. As long as people like this put out bogus research, they have a job. Without global warming theory, sorry, they need to find something else to scare people with to get a pay check for shallow research.

As long as this type of bogus research unfolds, government can justify taxing energy.