No word yet. Probably the NOs will have it. The wild card is the youth. The voting age was lowered in Scotland to 16. Therein is the wildcard. The “NOs” they are calling the silent traitors who think the Scottish are incapable of standing up alone. They are quiet – not vocal – but may sell the country down the road of turmoil. When the economy turns down in 2016, this will lead to increasing civil unrest in Scotland that will turn violent at times.
The Scottish vote will be very important from the perspective that this will shake up the entire concept behind Brussels if they vote YES. Throughout Europe, the same civil unrest is rising as discontent every where.. Even if the vote is “NO” and the people accept that they are incapable of self-rule as second-rate citizens, the issue will not go away so easily. The “better together” crowd has NOTHING positive to offer Scotland whatsoever. It has been all about scare tactics that the Scots are inferior. The polls coming out gave the NO vote a 4 point lead. However, the ScotCen poll shows “NO” at 51% and “YES” at 49%, The NO campaign has nothing to offer and if they win, Scotland will really lose and we will see serious tension in the future when the economy turns down next year. The unrest will not vanish with a NO vote – it will be I told you so.
QUESTION: Hi Mr. Armstrong,
I just read your 1997 Edinburgh transcript which you posted. It sounds like you could have written it today, which brings me to my question. It seems that we have drifted through the last 17 years dealing with the same corrupt systems and find ourselves in the same position, so why do you think markets and societies around the globe are going to deteriorate so dramatically over the next 17 years into 2032? As the old saying goes, “The more things change, the more things stay the same”, or as Einstein might have added, “We are at a relative standstill.”
Always fascinated by your work,
ANSWER: This is why I say it’s like a Shakespeare’s play – the plot is always the same, only the actors change. It is just a question of time. The reason we go into crisis is because each wave builds in intensity. The 2007-2011 decline was the worst since the Great Depression. The bankers went too far. The level of bailout has been massive and the low-level of interest rates was set in motion because of that chaos the bankers created.
Public pessimism is now at historical highs as is the lack of retail participation in stocks. There is no BUBBLE in the stock market without optimism. We have unemployment running with the fictional number of 7% still a 150% above the level prior to the Great Depression. Hence we are at higher and higher levels from one cycle to the next. So the next turn 2015-2020 will be worst than the last. By 2032, I seriously doubt we will exist as we have known it. Just as communism collapsed, we are facing the same collapse from socialism. This is not about helping the less fortunate – this is about government helping themselves to our income.
Communism did not tax you because they owned everything. We have socialism where we own everything, but they tax that ownership pretending it is for our benefit. Don’t pay your property taxes and see how long the state will take to throw you out on the street with nothing. They have no problem leaving people homeless when the money benefits them.
We call something “Draconian” because Draco of Athens passed laws and when you could not pay your taxes and interest, you lost the farm. However, he did not throw you out on the street. You were then a slave working your own land for Draco and his buddies.
We have nothing left. There is no appreciable difference between communism that restricted movement and socialism that they can also restrict your movement until you pay your taxes. It is always about them.
The problem is systemic and reemerges every single time – WITHOUT EXCEPTION!. Only the actors change from one crisis to the next and it is merely pattern after pattern on top of yet other patterns. It does not take a soothsayer to figure out the future. Nobody has to visit me in my dreams or in the middle of the night. This is just the same thing over and over again. I use to ask audiences what famous senator said these words above. In the 1980? The audience would always reply it must be a Republican in Reagan’s camp.
I became friends with Lady Thatcher for in the 1980s you could have intelligent conversations with real leaders. Those days are gone. Lady Thatcher addressed our conference and stated publicly that governments should look at cycles. That was a huge endorsement of our technology.
Snowden revealed that the NSA can watch as you type and predict your thoughts. How? It is cyclical based and about patterns. The future can be revealed. The problem – does anyone really listen or say hey – let’s try something different for just one time?
Municipal governments are going broke everywhere. This entire structure of government would never have been designed even by a moron. In Germany. a survey of 300 municipalities shows that 74% are planning to raise taxes. Now 27% plan to increase their cemetery fees, 25% want to demand more money for attending daycare or day schools. 21% plan to increase the property tax assessment rate, and 13% intend to raise the dog tax. (see latest German survery)
We are headed into this Sovereign Debt Crisis and Western Society as we know it cannot POSSIBLY exist. The problem with politicians is they just look at the people as a bottomless-pit of revenue to be taxed at will. They have no grand plan nor have they ever contemplated the long-term viability of such a system with no fiscal restraints whatsoever. They never see themselves as part of any problem – it is always the cheating people who do not hand them everything they demand.
This is the source of the civil unrest we see coming everywhere. Governments do not respect the people nor do they really care about our future. This is now all about them and they only see raising taxes rather than downsizing or reform.
In the United States, the resistance toward raising taxes to pay for repairs in infrastructure has the Obama Administration pitching the pension funds to join in and invest in an “infrastructure fund”. They are soliciting pension funds because they will benefit from tolls etc and that will be more palatable than watching you toll dollars go to bankers. The idea is this will be salable to the public. California’s pensions Capers is on board and have already announced they will liquidate $4 billion from hedge funds. They have not announced where they will shift that money, but it appears they are getting ready for another Obama star project up there with Obamacare.
State and local government cannot print money. This is the DEFLATIONARY aspect that first impacts society. Courts begin to rule only in government’s favor and you then see the collapse of investment and society as a whole when the rule of law vanishes. The higher they raise taxes, the lower the disposable income, the lower the economic growth, and the higher we will see unemployment. Government wastes money – they consume capital and are incapable of producing anything worthwhile to contribute the economic growth. This is why government MUST be restricted to defined percentages of GDP to prevent it from growing like corporations until they become so big, they are unable to function.
Public unions are already advocating just taking money from other sectors to pay them. This is precisely the same trend that unfolded in Rome setting in motion the decline and fall. When Rome could not fund its pensions to the military, they began numerous revolutions and that justified sacking cities that opposed their wishes.
As Rome could not pay the troop pensions, they tore the empire apart at the seams. This is what lowered the defenses allowing the Barbarians to finally invade. Rome fell from within for the same faulty structure of fiscal mismanagement. The inflation (debasement) in the currency was NOT the cause of the fall of Rome, it was the symptom that followed the corruption.
So pay attention. It is the DEFLATION that comes FIRST. Inflation NEVER appears first with nothing driving it. It has always been the expansion of government that unfolds FIRST that later manifests in inflation only when you cross that point of no return in PUBLIC CONFIDENCE. As taxes were raised on property, people began to vacate the cities. The population of Rome collapsed as property values fell due to rising taxes. Sound familiar? Only with rising taxation did people just start to migrate away from Rome.
The Roman Emperor Diocletian (284-305AD) introduced passports. Not to travel from one country to another, but to be able to travel at all AFTER you were verified that you owed no taxes. Today, the US has introduced a law that if you owe the government $50,000 in taxes, they can revoke your passport until you pay. Wonderful how history repeats.
A client sent in a transcript of our April 29, 1997 presentation there in Edinburgh. This is interesting for it is discussing the formation of the Euro that was going on. It was at our London 1997 World Economic Conference that the European Commission attended.
QUESTION: In light of this predicament, as evidenced by your unequivocal statement regarding healthcare, will hospitals still exist, or will employees of the industry just blow away when this crisis peaks? Or will healthcare fields become below-standard-income careers in the future? Any insight would be greatly appreciated. As always, I thank you for taking the time to enlighten us in these dark times.
ANSWER: Yes. Healthcare will not cease to exist. But what will happen is the economic decline will cap the industry. Pension funding is being consumed with healthcare costs and this is part of the entire crisis. This one industry is sucking up more and more capital as a percentage of total income. This trend is not sustainable.
Our local city has just voted unanimously to raise the property tax rate 17.7%. They’re not alone, as many local municipalities in Florida have raised rates. 37 of 39 cities in a four county area have raised rates at least once since the 2007 downturn, according to newspaper reports, one has gone up 61% and is eyeing to take it up to a combined 89% increase. Despite rising values inline with the real estate cycle, the hunt for revenue is heating up on the local level.
REPLY: Municipal governments are broke everywhere. This is contributing to the steep economic decline we see coming 2015-2020. The greater government takes as a proportion of disposable income, the steeper the recession we face.
Government is the greatest evil. They cheat the people, exempt themselves from laws, and take whatever they desire in the name of the public good. We need serious restraints on government for they destroy civilization and create wars.