A Market Recap

GCNYNF-M 7-22-2014

 

The Markets are being bombarded from every direction fundamentally. The confusion is rising and so will the volatility. The euro is gradually declining, the stock market keeps holding, gold really cannot get out of its own way, and the 10 year rates remain low even in Germany. Capital is confused every which way from Sunday. Within Europe, people are buying the Germany assuming they get Deutsche marks when the Euro goes kaput. Others are still shifting to the state for diversification. Then we have rising bank fears so many in the big money crowd are also shifting to equities, and we have central banks buying equities to diversify from purely US government debt in dollars.

In Gold the Weekly Reversals define the range 142399 and 135500 on the upside and 124120 followed by 118870 on the downside.

Israeli & Hamas

israeli-warplanes-2

The War Cycle has been amazingly spot on. Even those who were skeptics are sending in emails asking what is going to happen now. War is brewing both civilly and internationally and in every area around the globe. The Middle East is brewing as well with the FAA imposing a 24-hour ban on US flights to Israel that is being followed by many European airlines also suspending flights. The sirens have been sounding in the south and central Israel and in the West Bank. The EU has called for disarmament of Hamas, but we all know that is just words. The UN chief has urged Israel to exercise restraint with more than 600 Palestinians are being reported dead.

The Energy Hidden Agenda?

OilRig

We are getting info from reliable sources that there may be another layer to the USA v Russian conflict. Just as the entire Syrian agenda was to arm terrorists to topple the Syrian government in order to push through a pipeline to cut off the energy monopoly in Europe held by Russia, we may be actually seeing another motive here. The projections of fracking technology that the USA will become a net exporter of energy has set the stage for another perhaps covert move – sanctions against Russia to open the European market for energy. In this new war of words and sanctions against Russia, it is the Americans who seem to be marching either totally brain-dead, or with another energy secret agenda. This very well just may be all about one thing -:taking the Russian energy market from them. To turn off Russia as a competitor, the Russian president is to be internationally isolated. The shooting down of flight MH17 is playing into this agenda and comes precisely at the right moment to aid the US strategy on energy. We will keep you advised on this matter.

Global Warming Crowd Now Argue It is Cycles That Mask the Warming Trend?

Sunrise-11

 

The Global Warming crowd is now desperately trying to counter-act the data that says they are quite frankly about as credible as the old Y2K crowd back in 2000. The data have clearly shown that they have lied, manipulated, and outright carried out a major fraud upon society. They argue that man has altered the entire planet in just a few decades which is like focusing on a 7 day reaction in a bear market and declaring it’s really a bull market. The theory is totally unsound simply from a realistic research perspective.

The fact that surface temperatures have not warmed over the past 17 years showing that their climate models are unreliable, is now amazingly being refuted with quick new research led by James Risbey. In just a matter of weeks, he is leading the charge demonstrating his clearly predisposed bias. Risbey now excuses their nonsense of models that have overestimated global warming with a slapped together study published in Nature Climate Change asserting that their models actually generate good estimates of recent and past trends provided they also took into account natural variability known as El Nino-La Nina phases in the Pacific. OOPS! Cycles?

It is just amazing how these people are so sold on claiming millions of years can be altered in just a few decades like a 7 day rally in the middle of the Great Depression. Risbey is clueless obviously that cycles exist or how they function and claiming that the oceans are absorbing the heat so we do not feel it is clever. Effective he states he would be right but for El Nino-La Mina phases. OMG – is this cycles? He actually states: “You’re always going to get periods when the warming slows down or speeds up relative to the mean rate because we have these strong natural cycles”.

So lets see, there are roughly 30-year cycles (Pi cycle 31.4 years) whereby the Pacific alternates between periods of more frequent El Ninos – when the ocean gives back heat to the atmosphere – to La Ninas, when it acts as a massive heat sink, setting in train relatively cool periods for surface temperatures. This has been taking place before the Industrial Revolution. Violent storms were far worse at the bottom on the 300 year cycle in the energy output of the sun in the 18th century.

The record of the biggest hurricane seasons in the Atlantic since the start of the 20th century reveals only a cycle, not a progressive trend escalating that builds like a bull market.

1. 1950 8
2. 2005 7
3. 1999 6
3. 1996 6
3. 1964 6
3. 1961 6
3. 1955 6
3. 1926 6

By selecting climate models in phase with natural variability, Risbey is desperately trying to argue the global warming core trend is correct. Quite frankly, a few decades does not cut it. In market forecasting, this is no different from following Black–Scholes model that led to the Long-Term Capital Management collapse in 1998 when Genius Failed because they tested the model with data only back to 1971.

Even looking at the historical record of storms, none of the worst even took place during the 20th century.

Where-Year-Deaths

Gulf of Mexico 1590 1,000
Nicaragua 1605 1300
Straits of Florida 1622 1090
Cuba and Florida 1644 1500
Caribbean 1666 2000
Barbados 1694 1000+
Bahamas 1715 1,000 – 2,500
Martinique 1767 1,600
Havana 1768 43 – 1,000
Newfoundland August 29 – September 9, 1775 North Carolina, Virginia, Newfoundland 4,000 – 4,163
Pointe-à-Pitre Bay 1776 6,000+
San Calixto October 9–20, 1780 Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Bermuda 27,501+
Gulf of Mexico 1780 2,000
Jamaica and Cuba 1780 42 – 1,090
Florida 1781 2,000+
Central Atlantic 1782 3,000+
“Cuba” Hurricane 1791 30 – 3,000
“Martinique 1813 3,000+
Caribbean 1824 372 – 1,300+
Barbados–Louisiana August 10–17, 1831 Barbados, Puerto Rico, Cuba, Louisiana 1,500 – 2,500
Risbey stated: “The climate is simply variable on short time scales but that variability is superimposed on an unmistakable long-term warming trend.”

Risbey claims that the skeptics have lately relied on a naturally cool phase of the global cycle to fan doubts about climate change, the fact temperature records continue to fall even during a La-Nina dominated period is notable. Yet his argument reveals his own mistake – HELLO THERE ARE CYCLES. He boldly states that the temperature rising from the build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere “is beginning to overwhelm the natural variability on even shorter decadal time scales”. Quite frankly, he lacks any historical evidence long-term to support any such conclusion. As long as people like this put out bogus research, they have a job. Without global warming theory, sorry, they need to find something else to scare people with to get a pay check for shallow research.

As long as this type of bogus research unfolds, government can justify taxing energy.

Snowden Advocates Anti-NSA Technology

Bus-ThankYouSnowden

Edward Snowden addressed the hacking conference in NYC known as HOPE (Hackers On Planet Earth) to focus development of easy-to-use technologies to subvert government surveillance programs around the globe. He is advocating technology that would allow people to communicate anonymously and encrypt their messages. You can bet the NSA would love to have him assassinated for they cannot grasp that what they have done is to turn the USA into the evil empire in the minds of non-Americans. This is precisely why Athens fell because they became arrogant and authoritative toward their allies. Just reverse the role. How would the Americans react if all of their personal phone calls, emails, and Google searches were being collected by Russia and the US was powerless to stop it. What goes around – comes around.