The US share market compared to the DAX is lagging. We can see our Energy models have been declining as we have pressed begrudgingly higher. The Oscillators, more commonly used, are crawling at the highs. While we still see the potential for new highs here in March, the lack of a spike high on our Energy Models compared to the DAX is telling for the long-term. This strongly suggests that the US share market will make new highs after 2015.75 on a capital inflow.
We appear to be in that 1927 moment where the Central Banks secretly got together and tried to deflect the capital inflows to the USA to help Europe. The USA lowered its interest rates in 1927 and then was forced to raise rates virtually doubling them trying to stop the rally into 1929.
What we are currently looking at is perhaps the False Move. The US may decline at first with the DAX and then base turning up for the last 2 year phase transition into 2017. This too may line up with 86 years from the Sovereign Debt Crisis of 1931. So here too we could be facing the dreaded TENTH WAVE. A False move will shake the tree and get the fundamentalists on the bearish side yelling “see – I told you so.” Obviously, this will be one of those times we need an unbiased global capital flow model to track where the money will be shifting to.
We will be putting on line our famous Capital Flow tracking system that only the biggest institution ever got to see. This will be available to those brave souls ready to cross that line from the old world of personal opinion into the new realm of a computer that really is tracking the world. It would take thousands of analysts to do this and then you need a team they report to and finally someone at the top of that to coordinate the disparities. This is the only way ahead to the future. There really is none other. Personal interpretation and soap-boxes are just still preaching the world is flat. Fortunately, there will always be skeptics who will prefer fundamental analysis so no worries – the majority will always be in the dark. It is like politics 45% will vote Democrats no matter the evidence and 45% will vote Republic refusing to ever switch. Ah! But that 10% are the real movers-and-shakers in society. This is for that most distinguished 10%.
Previously I have warned that the DAX would press higher as the object of capital flight within Europe. The problem we are facing is that the DAX could peak-out with this ECM turning point. If this were to unfold with a high in the DAX to the day of the ECM, this will be the kiss-of-death for Europe and it would be the strongest possible warning that a dollar rally will create massive deflation ahead. We can see our Energy Models are pointing to a run-up that is more indicative of a serious high forming rather than just a temporary high.
We still see March as a key target and advise our European readers to pay close attention here as we move into the next couple of weeks.
As we look into March, we can see the technical resistance begins at 1163781 level on a broad monthly basis. This is the next target area for a high.
Looking at the DAX in dollars, we can see here too we are following the Projection on the Weekly Level rather closely. Our Energy models are warning also that the DAX has entered the danger-zone for a serious high.
There remains the possibility that 2015.75 becomes as an important high for Europe as the EU is fighting a losing battle. Brussels is destroying the European economy – not lifting it out of trouble. What we are looking at here is perhaps a precursor to the next very serious Great Depression with unemployment at twice the level at a minimum compared to where they were BEFORE the Great Depression that began in 1929.
Another very serious marker is the fact that 1929 to 2015 just so happens to be 86 years. This is the TENTH 8.6 year wave. This warns that what comes after the TENTH Wave historically is major change. This is WHY we have been warning that 2015 was the start of BIG BANG.
A lot of people have sent in links to suddenly a bunch of people trying to mimic our models. That is all they can do for the ONLY reliable aspect is the ABSENCE of Human Interpretation. Standing on one’s soap-box and pretending they have some fantastic model combining various forms of analysis is cute. But as long as there is human interpretation required, there is human error. Nobody can forecast what they have not experienced from a personal wisdom perspective. Their interpretations typically follow some preconceived vision of the future and therein lies the entire problem. The more they pretend, the greater the risk that when it comes time to try to take that step forward for society, these types of people will only discredit any advancement. They do far more damage to society as a whole than they will ever contemplate while trying to get rich. You cannot advise others if you have not done it yourself.
One of the lesser know government programs to come out of the 2007-2011 ECM Downturn, is the Home Affordable Refinance Plan (HARP), HARP could still benefit millions of Americans and reduce their monthly payments by as much as $4,264 each year. The banks will not tell you that.
The bankers are cheering the ending of this program in 2015. To them, it could not have been quiet enough. The program is set to expire in 2015, yet probably more than a million homeowners could still benefit today.
The argument that there was a conspiracy between the USA and Saudi Arabia to lower the price of oil to hurt Russia is proving to be a bunch of nonsense.The Saudi-led OPEC decision of Nov. 27, 2014 to maintain output levels and protect its market share is having a profound impact in the oil industry. Allowing prices to fall has resulted in US rigs shutting down helping to reduce supply not just hurting Russia. Saudi Arabia has given up on the idea of controlling the price for oil which cannot be achieved in the face of new supplies. The only thing they can do is to maintain output to impact the profitability of other producers forcing them to shut down. This is an old strategy and in trade it was called “dumping” – selling below cost to gain market-share.
OPEC has clearly given up on trying to control the price. That strategy is dead in the water. The future rise of oil thus lies in the hands of reducing the glut. So the bounce is still a bounce. This has not altered the long-term. Oil prices will still suffer as the economy turns down with the ECM from 2015.75. This will merely further reduce demand.
Well Putin must have figured a way to send the cold Siberian Winds over the top of the globe through Canada and all the way down into Florida where it fell to even 30 degrees in Clearwater. Since man can alter weather by turning on his cars, clearly Putin must have turned every car, truck, and tank on in Siberia to send this much cold over the top trying to freeze Obama in his tracks.
Well for sure in the world of reality, this winter has produced the coldest in several decades and there is now far more ice at the North Pole than when Al Gore began claiming there was Global Warming. These clowns never heard of the White Earth effect yet they have the audacity to call themselves scientists.
I have never seen such a bunch of losers when it comes to research and analysis. This is like When Genius Failed and they created models that would make them a fortune but only back-tested to 1971. Long-Term Capital Management collapsed on that one. Trends within the economy unfold over hundreds of years and weather as well. To study a few decades back and proclaim you discovered Global Warming is amazingly stupid. The problem, they have degrees with no practical real world experience and as such they get billions of dollars to study the most ridiculous theories. Well at least they probably toast the stupid taxpayers who fund this nonsense.
While Greece captures the headlines, quietly behind the curtain the European Commission has granted France until 2017 to bring its budget deficit below the EU limit of 3% of GDP. So while everyone has their eye on Greece, Europe’s second largest economy has one of the highest social welfare bills and even less of a chance of solving the problem of austerity without creating the next French Revolution.
France is a €2 trillion economy with overall unemployment really over 15% and youth unemployment at shocking levels. Our models on France show no hope whatsoever in coming into line for as the ECM turns down, so will its tax revenues as unemployment rises significantly. Its high Muslim population will also help distract attention from economics and civil unrest there will be more characterized by religion.
The new Marxist Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis has warned Germany to respect his nation’s sovereignty as proposed bailout reforms go in front of the parliament in Berlin. In this respect, he is absolutely correct. But this is the problem of the faulty design for the Euro from day-one. To create a single currency that had to consolidate all debts as Alexander Hamilton did at the birth of the USA. Thereafter, whatever debts a state incurred would not have impacted the Euro or the EU as a whole. They simply refuse to properly structure the Euro and therein lies its demise. The Euro Crisis will never end for there is no intent to ever pay off debt by any nation anyhow. Who are these people fooling besides themselves?