Healthcare Peak

QUESTION: In light of this predicament, as evidenced by your unequivocal statement regarding healthcare, will hospitals still exist, or will employees of the industry just blow away when this crisis peaks? Or will healthcare fields become below-standard-income careers in the future? Any insight would be greatly appreciated. As always, I thank you for taking the time to enlighten us in these dark times.

ANSWER: Yes. Healthcare will not cease to exist. But what will happen is the economic decline will cap the industry. Pension funding is being consumed with healthcare costs and this is part of the entire crisis. This one industry is sucking up more and more capital as a percentage of total income. This trend is not sustainable.

Florida Raising Property Taxes

Taxes

COMMENT:

Hi Martin,

Our local city has just voted unanimously to raise the property tax rate 17.7%. They’re not alone, as many local municipalities in Florida have raised rates. 37 of 39 cities in a four county area have raised rates at least once since the 2007 downturn, according to newspaper reports, one has gone up 61% and is eyeing to take it up to a combined 89% increase. Despite rising values inline with the real estate cycle, the hunt for revenue is heating up on the local level.

Thanks

B

REPLY: Municipal governments are broke everywhere. This is contributing to the steep economic decline we see coming 2015-2020. The greater government takes as a proportion of disposable income, the steeper the recession we face.

Government is the greatest evil. They cheat the people, exempt themselves from laws, and take whatever they desire in the name of the public good. We need serious restraints on government for they destroy civilization and create wars.

US Number & Unemployment

Unemployment

FOR THE RECORD – the 7% number for unemployment is the official number – it is by no means REAL. The real number is in the area of 12% now and will rise to test the 25% level. Here is our old forecast from 2009. It was emphasized then that the rise in unemployment will accelerate from the government sector namely state and local – not federal who can spend whatever they desire.

We could use the Queen’s Veto in USA

Queen+Opens+Parliament

COMMENT: Since we only have a representative democracy, (unlike some) I find it very healthy that the sovereign is consulted on all major acts of parliament.

What isn’t well-known (although it’s published as such) – is that income tax is only  a temporary law, and as such has to be restated every year and presented to the Queen on opening of each parliament.

 

From the point of view of the democratic process – I find this very healthy, as civil servants would no doubt have wanted that turned formerly into a permanent statute.  No doubt the Queen is aware of the history of taxation and its potential impact on personal freedom and property ownership.

 

(by the way  - Scotland has every intention of retaining the Monarch post any succesful vote on independency!).

 

Best wishes

 

M

 

REPLY: I fully agree that the Queen’s veto power is very good. Politicians are subject to the wind of money and chance. The Monarch is there and in Britain the tradition is taken more seriously. The Queen is still respected in many former British Commonwealth Nations. A Yes Voted in Scotland will not displace the Queen’s respect in Scotland

 

It is a shame we do not allow the Queen to veto Obama

Can the Queen of England Veto Laws in UK?

Queen-Parliament

The answer to questions coming in about the power of the Queen to nullify laws passed by Parliament is YES – she has that power. It has been used to veto war and the Guardian had revealed the extent of that power most people had no idea existed back in 2013. This has been known behind the curtain for a long time. Indeed, back in 1999, the Queen completely vetoed the Military Actions Against Iraq Bill in 1999 that attempted to transfer the power to authorize military strikes against Iraq from the monarch to parliament. The role of the monarch in Britain is not one of a pure ceremonial role. However, it is unlikely that the Queen can nullify a referendum vote in Scotland.

China Prepares for War with Japan

China-Soldiers

While the eyes of the world are on the Middle East and Ukraine, China’s rumblings against Japan are real. China is in fact under preparations for war. ”The outbreak of a world war is not impossible,” said Professor Han Xudong of the National Defense University of the People’s Liberation Army on Tuesday in a commentary he wrote for the party organ ‘People’s Daily’. The tension between the United States and Russia over the Ukraine crisis could degenerate into an armed conflict between the great powers, which could spread to the rest of the world. But the hatred in China toward Japan is real – it is payback for World War II.

The sentiment in China for war against Japan is rising in popularity. Keep in mind that China does not confront NATO as does Russia. The prospects that we will see a conflict in Asia are rising rapidly.

Crude Oil Collapses – Plot Against Russia or Economics?

CRUDE-W 9-15-2014

The global demand for oil is declining as the United States moves toward self-sufficiency and is the only nation still in a positive economic trend. Everywhere else we see the global economy turning down since 2007 including China and Russia no less Europe. But the level of pessimism in the USA does not imply a bull market for commodities no less oil.

The oil price has fallen in the past week for the first time since one and a half years under the $ 100 mark dropping to test the $90 level. On our models, the critical support lies at $92 and $82 going into 2015. A year-end closing below $92 will shift oil into a neutral position whereas a 2014 closing below $82 will warn of a sharp decline cannot be ruled out.

The global oil demand rose by only 500,000 barrels of crude oil per day, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) in the second quarter. This increase in oil demand is the lowest in almost 3 years. The only place where demand has risen is in North America, whereas in Europe and Asia demand has been noted generally less. The recent slowdown in demand growth is exceptional in fact but the rising levels of taxation and the rise in draconian policies in Europe to bail out banks and municipal governments has seriously impacted expectation no less the fact that youth unemployment remains over 60%. This has impacted everything and is even sending marriage trends back to the 19th century where the age differentials are widening drastically. Girls are marrying increasingly older men to be able to start families since those near their own age in Europe are the equivalent of marrying someone virtually homeless living with their parents.

Because of the weak economic outlook for Europe, Russia, and China, the IEA has now revised its global demand forecast for 2014 and 2015 downward. They expect 2014 global demand of only 92.6 million barrels per day – an increase of 900,000 barrels per day from the previous year. For 2015, the organization expects global demand of 93.8 million barrels per day – an increase of 1.2 million barrels per day.

Clearly, oil is a leading indicator of the economic trend and the decline we see underway is reflecting the decline in oil prices. With the ECM turning down after 2015.75, the decline in oil prices is a warning of what is to come.

Despite the ongoing conflicts in countries such as Iraq and Libya, the global supply of oil continues to be strong. The major Iraqi oil fields are located in the southwest of the country and thus beyond the reach of the Islamic State. Libya could even increase massively its delivery despite the civil war in the country. In addition, the fracking boom is in North America.

Nevertheless, because of weak oil demand, the IEA expects lower flow rates than previously. They lowered the forecast for oil production of OPEC countries by 200,000 barrels per day to 30.6 million barrels per day in 2014 and 300,000 barrels per day to 29.6 million barrels per day in the year 2015th

Saudi Arabia, the largest oil producer in OPEC, lowered his deliveries in August by 330,000 barrels per day to 9.68 million barrels a day in response to the low demand of the customers. Saudi Arabia’s production will see further decreases in hopes of stabilizing the price of oil. Saudi’s oil exports may already fallen to 7 million barrels per day – the lowest level since September, 2011.

The OECD lowered on Monday its global growth expectations. In the Euroland, where it expects a GDP growth of just 0.8 percent for this year and that is really optimistic. The rising pessimism on a global scale is clearly reflected in the energy prices. This is not a political plot against Russia as some claim. This is a reflection of the serious economic decline we are in thanks to Marxism. Communism failed – it is simply the West’s turn to experience the same result.

CRFOR-M 9-15-2014

 

We see volatility rising from October. With the Middle East in turmoil and the War Cycle kicking in, hold on to your hat – energy is starting to kick up it heels going into year-end.