The story of espionage and duplicity that financial adviser Martin Armstrong relates in Marcus Vetter’s documentaryThe Forecaster is as serpentine and fascinating as a John le Carré novel. Its narrative thread convincingly weaves multiple financial collapses, the ouster of Boris Yeltsin and the rise of the Putin oligarchy around Armstrong’s life’s work — a mathematical model that predicts market peaks and collapses and, allegedly, the wars that accompany both.
Martin’s Economic Confidence Model tracks 26 market panics over 224 years, applies some arithmetic and extrudes a market cycle based on pi. Apparently! His published work from the 1980s to the present is uncanny in its accurate predictions of the market crash of 1987, the Soviet collapse, the first Gulf War and the housing collapse of 2007.
Director Vetter’s film, which includes Armstrong’s preposterous 11-year incarceration on contempt charges for refusing to turn over his source code, includes a lot of Ken Burns–style pans across scary-looking graphs of money apocalypses past and future, as well as interviews with Armstrong’s many supporters, all set to a pensive soundtrack of ominous tones.
With his interpretation of global events, Armstrong tells one hell of a good story. Is any of it true? All of it, including his computer model, is built on the tectonically immovable bedrock of human corruption, so it’s certainly plausible. Spoiler: The world economy is going to experience a “sovereign-debt big bang” sometime in October 2015, according to Armstrong’s model, so this will provide another validating data point if it happens.
Karin Steinberger Marcus Vetter, Karin Steinberger Marcus Vetter, Ulli Pfau, Michael Heiks
Monarchy is making a come-back. Yep. Can it really be any worse that politicians for sale to the highest bidder? One person v 400 corrupt lawyers may not be such a hard choice to make. Boy, it would be nice to take a step forward just once. This is reflective of just how fed-up people are becoming with government. They are corrupt and in your face assuming they are just above the law and we are fools who let them do as they like. Guess you can’t blame them.
Well the Press is fully in bed with government and are advocating eliminating cash because someone broke into an ATM. Using this logic, we should all walk around naked as well and then we do not need the TSA to search us for obviously we could not hide a weapon.
This is how it works. The media sells ideas and try to get the public all ready to accept the coming cashless society so we have no privacy and make sure everyone pays 120% of an taxes the government will raise to line their own pockets.
The latest scandal is the DEA sex parties. Let me state this right now. EVERY drug dealer who had serious cash in NYC federal prison stated bluntly the amount of money reported as confiscated was about 50% of the real number. When they told their court-appointed lawyers, as corrupt as anyone can be, they said be quiet for money money meant more time. The DEA agents get rich off of all the cash confiscated that never gets reported and everyone seems to share behind the curtain.
It comes as no surprise that those in charge of government NEVER learn from the past. They actually once again admit they always want to go to war, but never have any exit strategy. Just wage constant war and at the expense of so much blood exactly for what.
Even in trading, you must define where you are wrong and you must have an exit strategy before you enter a trade. If you do not know these basic parameters, you will lose money all the time. This is why people will hold on to a losing trade because they have no exit strategy.
The morons who wage war are really brain-dead and those who authorize them to wage endless war should be the first wave in the front line. It is easy to send other people to death. That is the mark of a coward. It is another thing to fight along side them. Julius Caesar was a leader his troops admired because he fought along side them and wore a red cloak so everyone knew where he was. That was guts. Shame we have no such leaders today.
ISIS will fizzle out for their own people will grow tired of the rules. Engage them and you will make them stronger. Observe and contain – do not attack. And as for the cowards who say they should bomb them out of existence, what about all the women and children trapped behind the lines that would not be there but for force? Communism failed all on its own. So will ISIS unless attacked.
The reaction rally in the markets appears to be unfolding on schedule. From the broader perspective, a corrective process in equities will send the residual cash into bonds and this may help create the final bubble top in interest rate markets. This should materialize with a correction in the dollar and that pop in the Euro. While we are looking for a break of the 80 level in the Euro against the dollar, that should not be right now.
In the cash Euro, the resistance stands at the 11360 and 11500 level. This is where we need a closing above that level to signal a sustainable pause in trend. We need a weekly closing above 11540 in the Euro to signal a sustainable reaction rally. We need a monthly closing above 12575 to confirm a pause in the downtrend.
Even gold has become a bit oversold so a reaction rally is warranted there as well. In gold, we would need a weekly closing above 1240 to create any sustainable pause at this time. We can see that our Energy Models did rather nicely in highlighting the pop and the decline. Now we can see a reaction rally is likely as we churn waiting for alignment with the global economy. We need to see a month end closing above 1256 to produce a June high.
The Dow has support at the 170004 level. A weekly closing beneath this level will confirm a retest of support. A closing below that level for month-end would then point to at least a April/May low. We still see July and October as key targets in time.
The DAX shows a daily closing below 114600 will produce a retest of support. However, a weekly closing below 117800 will warn of a retest of support on a broader level. A monthly closing below 1059000 is required to warn of a sustainable correction.
In Crude Oil a daily and weekly close above 5425 will signal a reaction rally is unfolding. Monthly closing resistance begins at 5525 with major resistance at the 8900-9000 level. June and August remain key targets in time.
We really have no control over the movie. We are not involved in ticket sales etc. London sold out. Sorry we have no tickets. The reception has been amazing. The reviews have been good even in the US so far as in LA Weekly. If this get the message out that is what counts. Let’s see that hopefully we may be able to stir some reform in the right direction.