The Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann (SPÖ) was informed on Friday in Aarau of the design of the Swiss tax system. The distinction of the Swiss tax system that sets is apart from the rest of the world is that there is a certain basic trust in the population, Faymann said. “Everyone knows his duties. You do not build a system where one investigates at home, in the homes and kitchens going to see what “ they might have.
Faymann has hit the nail on the head at last. He has observed the problem with government – it is not structured for the benefit of the people, but to control the people. It is a confrontational structure that only fools think (1) they really have any say, and (2) it is not just about government maintain their control for their own self-interest,
While recession has returned to Japan and interest rates have dropped to negative, in Europe the ECM has effectively announced it will expand its balance sheet again by a trillion Euro. China has lowered interest rates showing this view of lowering interest rates is believed to stimulate the economy still prevails, albeit nobody can point to any such period which demonstrates that such a policy has ever worked. The Fed lowered interest rates from the peak in 1929 to no avail. Honestly, while this may sound like good policy, it has simply never worked. Lowering interest rates HAS never created a stock bull market. Lowering interests has instead market the worse declines in history.
The problem we face today is the assumption that the Euro will not merely crash and burn, it will break-apart. We are witnessing two important shifts in capital. Pressure is still being applied to the Swiss despite the peg. They are swapping Euros for Swiss at alarming rates. In Germany, the 10 year bonds are trading through the US rates. Why? Certainly not because Germany is doing better than the USA from an economic perspective. This trade continues to assume that at the end of the day, the Euro will break-apart and they will end up with Deutsche marks. That is rather foolish for it appears that the ECB has no problem allowing the Euro to fall even below par with the dollar and in fact would welcome such a decline assuming at least then that would stimulate the economy.
#1 QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, do fundamentals really matter? It seems like the commentators can focus on whatever they want flipping it bullish or bearish based upon their views at that moment.
Thanks for all you do
#2 QUESTION: Hi Martin,
Thank you for all that you do. I have truly been enlightened to the gold & silver scams that have taken place over the last several years. I was taken in by this non-sense as well. Anyway, I have a question that I have not seen addressed on your sight. If it has please forgive me for asking it again. When gold & silver final begin their ascent, would it be safe to use the GLD & SLV ETF’s instead of the physical.
ANSWER: Fundamentals really mean nothing. It is the aggregate mood of the entire economy that dictates the trend. When there is a recession, it is next to impossible to convince anyone things will change. Likewise, in a boom, people simply expect it to continue. Those who pretend to be fundamentalists can spin all they want. The trend is bullish or bearish and no single event will reverse the entire trend of the economy as a whole. Everything has to move in coordination.
Physical gold is a starkly different animal today that was in 1980. As governments are desperate for money, gold refiners are obligated to report every ounce they refine, where it came from, and to whom it was sent. You cannot leave gold in a safe deposit box. Read the fine print under the terms and conditions. You are not supposed to keep cash in there. This is now considered to be money laundering and it could be confiscated. If the bank failed, good luck. They will go through the safe deposit boxes and seize whatever the government wants. I have just reported the shockingly low level of cash being seized from people in Washington DC – less than $20 at times.in civil asset forfeiture. This is coming down to if the police need pocket change for donuts – hey hand it over.
You cannot hop on a plane with a brief case full of gold. Those who fled Russia wove gold wire into clothing and painted it black. Women wore full length skirts made of gold wire. Today, that would set off every alarm. So physical gold should be restricted to coins. I would restrict it to $20 gold pieces etc. You can at least claim it’s a coin collection if that works next time.
As far as the miners and ETFs, I do not think there will be a problem before 2016. Keep in mind, as government becomes more desperate for money, anything is possible. Gold rallied with the decline in the ECM and peaked at the bottom in 2011. This illustrates my point – it is the hedge against government and uncertainty – it is not some magical investment that defies all logic. It is part the global economy and just look at this from a rational perspective. We do not need wild stories of fiat and how the demand in Asia will change the trend – sorry gold has declined since 2011 with such rising demand.
We will be sending out an update to those who purchased the International Precious Metals Outlook
updating the weekly and daily numbers as we move into the seasonal reaction high. This should be emailed next week.
The Million Dollar Baby Blue Cross Refuses to Pay the Bill. Heath Insurance is getting to be a real fraud. A Canadian couple bought insurance before they went on holiday when the wife was 6 months pregnant. Her water broke and she spent several weeks in a hospital. The baby was born 9 weeks premature. Blue Cross has refused to pay the bill claiming she had a high-risk pregnancy that was a pre-existing condition. That was a simple bladder infection that her doctor said had nothing to do with what happened. Nonetheless, Blue Cross simply won’t pay the bill. Like airlines, they have no problem takes money, they then claim some excuse not to pay but then keep the money you paid. In small business, that is a criminal act that big companies get away with all the time.
This is what Obamacare has done. It would have been far cheaper to just put the 10 million on medicare than pass 33,000 pages of regulation that benefit insurance companies and hospitals at the expense of the public. It would be nice to repeal Obamacare and tackle limitation on lawsuits that have driven the price of medicine to insane levels. Doctors have to order tests they know they do not need just in case they might get sued.
Deal with REAL reform – but oh ya. Most politicians are lawyers. Why would they limit rewards for suing. DAH?
The more the economic conditions decline, the more abuse we see coming from those who work for the government in Greece. The Greek police send in battalions to hunt people they suspect may organize the people. This is not something that the public will tolerate passively much longer for it is starting to appear in many countries. There is a significant risk now of a rise in civil unrest throughout Southern Europe.