We are on the Verge of a Very Profound Systemic Global Meltdown

Copyright Martin Armstrong All Rights Reserved August 4th, 2012

We are on the Verge of a Very Profound Systemic Global Meltdown

Why We Need Gold in Times like This

The HYPERINFLATIONISTS only focus on the amount of money created by the Fed and presume this must be inflationary, yet inflation is not appearing. This monetary expansion has been far less than the capital destruction that has taken place through deleveraging and it has really been bailing out the banks that have not lowered interest rates passing on the rate reduction to stimulate borrowers. Instead, profit margins at the banks are at record highs and the economy flounders because the greed of the bankers knows no bounds.

The Banking scandals are pervasive and continually on going. In total, Britain’s largest bank said it had set aside $2bn in the first half of the year to cover the cost of money laundering as well as compensating UK customers who were fraudulently sold payment protection insurance and interest rate swaps. HSBC reported an 11% year-on-year increase in pre-tax profits for the first six months of 2012 to $12.7bn.

Even Wikipedia reports Republic National Bank/HSBC pled criminally guilty in 2001 for cheating Japanese investors in the Princeton Economics affair in $1 billion of transactions.

“1999: HSBC acquires Republic.

2001: Republic pleads guilty to fraud and agrees to restitution of $606 million in connection with cheating Japanese customers by its Republic New York Securities Corporation subsidiary.”

(let’s see how long it takes Wikipedia to remove this truth)

Of course, all HSBC directors received absolute immunity from prosecution and paid $606 million in restitution after buying the notes from the government and pocketing $400 million in foreign exchange profits. If it was supposed to be a $1 billion fraud, how did HSBC get away with only paying $606 million? They were handed the foreign exchange profits of $400 million by the government that belonged to Princeton Economics and then O’Melveny & Myers allegedly threatened former employees with life time contempt if they dared to assert any claims.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_New_York

In 2011, HSBC pled guilty to miss-selling securities to “vulnerable and elderly” people that was more than 40 million pounds. HSBC was fined 10.5 million pounds in 2005 and ordered to repay 29.3 million pounds when it bought a Nursing Home Fees Agency. HSBC has announced provisions of £830 million relating to redress for the miss-selling of payment protection insurance (PPI) and interest rate swaps. http://citywire.co.uk/new-model-adviser/hsbc-mis-selling-redress-costs-hit-800m/a607721

Then there was the banking scandal of manipulating LIBOR interest rates. Manipulating markets, interest rates, and governments are standard practice for a very, very long time. They are the driving force behind our destruction of Western Society because they are the people that tell government they cannot survive without them. Who is going to sell their debt? Because governments are addicted to borrowing and have been told this is the way to run things, we are truly screwed. Forget the HYPERINFLATION scenarios, fiat currency nonsense, and fake gold bars in Fort Knox. It was PhiBro who subsidized an analyst in Connecticut who had tried to shut us up back in 1997 about their silver manipulation that finally forced Warren Buffett to admit he bought $1 billion. Why do you think Buffett is coming out and advocating paying higher taxes? It is to support the banks, not save society. Any so called analyst who tells you not to read what we publish because we are someone “anti-gold” may indeed be subsidized behind the scenes to support this distraction from the real issues at hand.

Meanwhile, Ron Paul (R-Texas) deserves a Congressional Medal of Honor for his battled against the Federal Reserve. In a rare moment of bipartisanship, the House overwhelmingly passed his bill to audit the Federal Reserve. Bill (H.R. 459), with 270 co-sponsors, passed 327 to 98. All but one Republican — Rep. Bob Turner of New York — voted for it, along with 89 Democrats. Previously, Paul teamed up with former Rep. Alan Grayson (D-Fla.) in 2010 to pass similar legislation that became part of the final Wall Street reform bill. However, Ron Paul said this new audit legislation was needed because the 2010 bill didn’t go far enough focusing only on emergency credit programs and procedural issues, rather than on the substantive details of the lending transactions. This new 2012 bill doesn’t limit the focus of the audit and is opposed by the bankers behind the scenes. Even Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke recently told the House Financial Services Committee that he agrees with the “basic premise” that the Fed should be transparent, however, he raised concerns that the legislation doesn’t exempt monetary policy and deliberations from its reach. He was expressing concern that the Fed strategy would become public. The real concern is that the public would learn that there is no coherent strategy as a long-term plan. Furthermore, in 1988, Robert Rough, a former director of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, was indicted for tipping a broker dealer with nonpublic information about the Fed’s discount rate. The fact that NY bankers seek such information has always existed.

On September 4th, 1986, David Brown of Goldman Sachs was convicted of passing inside information to Ivan Boesky on a takeover deal. Information was being funneled regarding privileged client merger deals.

On August 17th, 1989, Robert A. Freeman, a partner at Goldman, Sachs & Company, pleaded guilty to a felony charge of mail fraud after insider trading charges had been filed. Robert Freeman, was a senior Partner ay Goldman Sachs who was the Head of Risk Arbitrage. He was the protégé of Robert Rubin. Freeman was one of the firm’s top traders at the time. http://www.nytimes.com/1989/08/18/world/a-top-trader-at-goldman-sachs-pleads-guilty-to-insider-charges.html?pagewanted=all&src=pm

In 1998, while Goldman was a member of a Wall Street panel advising the government on how to manage its debt, Youngdahl urged Treasury officials to end the sale of three-year notes. They did. Few other economists said the note would be scrapped.

On November 12^th, 2003, John Youngdahl, the former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economist who previously tipped off the firm’s traders about the demise of the 30-year Treasury bond, pleaded guilty to criminal insider-trading charges. Youngdahl, admitted helping Goldman profit from secret information as part of a guilty plea to charges of securities fraud, conspiracy, wire fraud and theft. He admitted: “I expected that Goldman would profit from having this information, and that this would ultimately benefit me as a member of Goldman,… There was an annual bonus procedure, and it was my expectation that the bonus could be enhanced.” The announcement that the Treasury Department would stop selling 30-year bonds sparked their biggest gain in 14 years. He was fined $240,000. Goldman Sachs agreed to pay $9.3 million in penalties.

Youngdahl’s  father, the late C. Richard Youngdahl, was chairman of Aubrey G. Lanston & Co., one of the original 18 “primary dealers” established in 1960 that are required to bid on Treasury debt sales. His father joined Lanston in 1955 after 11 years as an economist at the Federal Reserve and stayed at the firm until his retirement in 1981.

Eugene M. Plotkin, formerly a research analyst at Goldman Sachs, was convicted of insider trading on January 4, 2008 after unusual trading appeared prior to news. On October 26th, 2011, the federal government’s biggest insider trading case ensnared Rajat Gupta, a board member at Goldman Sachs and Proctor & Gamble, as he was formerly charged and he self-surrendered to the FBI.

On September 21st, 2008, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, the last two major investment banks in the United States, both became traditional bank holding companies bringing an end to the era of investment banking on Wall Street making them eligible to borrow from the Fed for trading purposes by calling it something else. Goldman Sachs was one of the heaviest users of these loan facilities, taking out numerous loans from March 18, 2008 – April 22, 2009. The Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF), the first Fed facility ever to provide overnight loans to investment banks, loaned Goldman Sachs a total of $589 billion against collateral such as corporate market instruments and mortgage-backed securities. The Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF), which allows primary dealers to borrow liquid Treasury securities for one month in exchange for less liquid collateral, loaned Goldman Sachs a total of $193 billion.

In April, 2010, Goldman director Rajat Gupta was named in an insider-trading case.

On April 12^th, 2011, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. settled charges with the Securities and Exchange Commission agreeing to pay a $22 million fine over allegations that the Wall Street bank didn’t have policies to prevent analysts from sharing nonpublic information with the firm’s traders.

On March 14th, 2012, a resignation letter Greg Smith of Goldman Sachs was published in the New York Times printed as an op-ed page. He was the head of Goldman Sachs US equity derivatives business in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA). Smith attacked the company’s CEO and president for losing the company’s culture, which he described as “the secret sauce that made this place great and allowed us to earn our clients’ trust for 143 years”. Smith said that advising clients “to do what I believe is right for them” was becoming increasingly unpopular. Instead there was a “toxic and destructive” environment in which “the interests of the client continue to be sidelined”, senior management described clients as “muppets” and colleagues callously talked about “ripping their clients off”. In reply, Goldman Sachs said that “we will only be successful if our clients are successful”, claiming “this fundamental truth lies at the heart of how we conduct ourselves.” However, the long list of evidence of wrong doing on a continual basis infers that Smith is correct.

The banks are the culprits here. They are the people advising the governments they need to raise taxes and to protect the bondholders at the expense of society. They are placing us all at risk of social unrest. In Europe, crime is rising everywhere. In Brussels, the very capital of Europe itself, a friend in broad-daylight was waiting at a red light when a man with a sledge-hammer smashed her window to steal her purse. In Rome, a friend had to chase a purse snatcher in a park. Unemployment is rising everywhere and we are looking at the seams that have held Western Society together being torn asunder.

Where the HYPERINFLATIONISTS are dead wrong, is that they only look at the creation of money by the Fed and not the valuable of assets. True, on the one hand the Fed creates $3 trillion, but this is offset by the destruction of $12 trillion in private assets. There is NEVER just one side to any coin. We MUST look at both the buy and sell side on any question. Housing is still in trouble and about 70% of all property is worth less than its original purchase price. The age old idea that buy a home and your savings will be your retirement  is about as valid as those who say that about any investment pretending that there is only one direction and that is higher long-term.

Then there are those who try to persuade people not to listen to me because I say we are NOT headed into HYPERINFLATION and that I really hate gold. I am a trader – not a religious leader. This is about making and preserving money, not about vengeance, retribution, or dogma. There are those among the Goldbugs that hate my guts because I say there will be no HYPERINFLATION. Whether gold bars in Fort Knox are real or fake and wild stories of how government will just print into oblivion are NOT the reasons to buy gold and only prevent the majority from buying gold because they are absurd. We are in the last throes of communism-socialism that have led to the greatest period of fiscal mismanagement in history. We do not need stretching absurd issues to justify buying gold. I do not understand why people are so intent upon misleading investors when we are trying to survive the potential collapse of Western Civilization the same a Communism collapsed in 1989.95. This not an issue of fiat currency that cannot be reconciled with history since not only is all money fiat, but gold declined for 19 years between 1980 and 1999 while money was still fiat.

We are facing something far more serious. This is about the very economic structure of perpetually borrowing with no intent of ever paying anything back. Communism failed because of the Marxist theory that government can eliminate the business cycle through centralized government planning. In the West, Keynes followed Marx insofar as the basic proposition that government is capable of manipulating the business cycle. Sorry! Both were dead wrong and we now are paying the price for those failed theories!

We are on the verge of a systemic global meltdown and if you do not understand what we face, you will lose your shirt, pants, wife, kids, and the farm. This whole nonsense of HYPERINFLATION PRESUMES government will just continue to print forever. They do not even address the reality that the bondholders are the very people who are demanding to raise taxes and impose austerity to ensure what they are paid back and not with devalued funny money. They warn government that their future borrowing capacity is at stake and unless they do as the bankers say, the world will end for they will no longer be able to borrow continuously. This is the inherent check against HYPERINFLATION that is ignored by all this hype. The average person is being squeeze both in taxes and in interest rates. The banks have positioned themselves as the necessary evil and eliminating Glass-Steagall was critical to their agenda. They can now dominate the financial world pushing more and more debt controlling government and keeping spreads between cost of funds and lending rates at record highs.

Then you have the whole state and local government implosion and they have no ability to print money whatsoever. They are raising taxes, transforming police into revenue agents with wheels, and in general doing whatever they can to destroy the local economy. Just where is the HYPERINFLATION supposed to come from? On my way to work, the police shut down a road, established a check point, and pulled every car over asking “papers please” and anyone who could not produce what they demands was ticketed – so much for probable cause. Completely unconstitutional, but unless you have the money and the desire to fight, you have no rights and if you win, you do not get even your legal costs back assuming you could find a local lawyer willing to defend you.

We are experiencing massive stagflation where the costs are rising more rapidly than economic growth and this trend is creating high unemployment that at the very best realistic number is 14% in the USA with minority youth exceeding 50%. These are trends that produce DEFLATION never HYPERINFLATION. Government is just not going to print uncontrollably. Bondholders and bankers are already screaming behind the curtain and quite frankly the mainstream press pays no attention to the crisis in brewing in the wings. To be good citizens, they just do not report what is going on or address that there should be any problems that people need to know about.

As we approach September/October, there is a capital flight taking place that is making our computer jump up and wish it had legs so it could hide under the table. Just as we stood up and warned that there was $150 billion in capital leaving Russia and $100 billion going in, that combination was lethal and it produced the Russian debt crisis and the Long-Term Capital Management debacle in 1998. Well right now more than 25% of GDP in wealth has taken flight. Once Spain goes, there goes the EU. The Spanish banking system is on the verge of systemic complete failure. So much capital has been fleeing Spain the ECB is now pouring in on average, more than €300 billion on a monthly basis to meet liquidity needs. Since the total Spanish banking system is about €3 trillion in size, the financial crisis brewing is amounting to almost 10% of total banking assets on a monthly basis. This is simply unsustainable. Capital outflows from Spain have been more than €41.3 billion ($50.7 billion) in May with only €14 billion in capital inflows. For the first five months of 2012, a total capital outflow has been about €163.

We do not face HYPERINFLATION that implies government will function as normal and just print into oblivion. The bondholders will not tolerate that and the bankers will continue to warn against that demanding austerity. The various federal governments are behind closed doors just trying to figure out one step at a time. There is by NO MEANS any such strategic game plan. They are just hoping that the crisis will pass without any reform on their part and they can get back to normal. Gold will be one of the best investments for survival, but not because of HYPERINFLATION, but because it will become the core of the unofficial economy that always emerges.

One of the best kept secrets omitted from the history books about the Great Depression is the Depression Script. Over 400 cities could not collect taxes because people had no money. Pictured here are the Lincoln Park currency issues of 1934. This illustrates the great divergence between federal and state/local governments. To simply function because money was hoarded, private currency was emerging during the Great Depression from state and local government – pure fiat.

Farmland that had sold for even $1.50 an acre in the mid-1800s collapsed to 25 cents because there was nobody there to even bid. Land auctions as pictured here in 1933 saw prices totally collapse. The presumption that government will print uncontrollably into oblivion is just not realistic. We are facing massive deflation/inflation that emerges as STAGFLATION.

HYPERINFLATION never takes place as long as government is issuing debt and suckers are buying it. The HYPERINFLATION of Germany and Zimbabwe took place BECAUSE government was unable to sell bonds. Once that takes place, all is then lost.

Governments globally are without any solution. There is no discussion about reforming the world monetary system. This implies we must crash and burn. We will be starting our subscription services in September. This whole thing is just getting so crazy; we are truly on the verge of a systemic collapse of profound importance. The monetary system will never look the same!

We have been requested to reestablish an independent think tank. Many are now gathering in Europe to do so. Those interested in a research position to join the firm to write important reports on the global economy not influenced by bogus requests; feel free to contact us by email at:  [email protected] . We will be producing as a start a comprehensive study of the global economy focusing on the disparity between state & local governments compared to national.

This research is vital to understanding capital flows and market directions. We are facing a real Global Meltdown that is brewing beyond what most people even look at. Greece was the tip of the iceberg. Governments are imploding on a global scale. Japan is doubling its sales tax and its national debt will exceed $12 trillion dollars next year – not far behind the USA. Spain is in really dire financial position. Capital is pouring out of the country. More than 25% of GDP in wealth has taken flight from that country. Once Spain goes, there goes the EU. The Spanish banking system is on the verge of systemic complete failure. So much capital has been fleeing Spain the ECB is now pouring in on average, more than €300 billion on a monthly basis to meet liquidity needs. Since the total Spanish banking system is about €3 trillion in size, the financial crisis brewing is amounting to almost 10% of total banking assets on a monthly basis. This is simply unsustainable.

Governments worldwide are in crisis. There is a great disparity between the state and local governments who cannot manufacture money at will and the sovereign national governments who can. If you think for one moment that sovereign government bonds are the flight to safety, you better stop smoking the weed. In the United States, you will see further rises in social security taxes because this is of course not a tax but a garnishment on income that goes into the same spending pot. Therefore, the so called “poor” who the Democrats swear they will ease their burden by getting those rich bastards once and for all, pay attention to Social Security. Since that is a garnishment and not a tax on income, it is not refundable and it skirts the whole rich v poor nonsense – everyone pays.

Local governments have figured this out as well. The City of Philadelphia has chased out the “rich” and those left behind and brain-dead and just like throwing their money down the drain. Property taxes are rising because once again this is free of income. Regardless what you have in income, you owe taxes on the property you have even if you do not have a job.

The city of Scranton, Pennsylvania reduced all government wages to minimum wage. In Spain, Catalonia, Spain’s most indebted region, announced it could no longer pay subsides in July to hospitals, old age homes and other social services. In South America, Argentina is also in economic decline thanks to debt and there too we see local governments imploding. Normally, the provincial cities receive funding from the provincial governments. However, this has dried up in some areas shoving cities into cash-strapped debtors who cannot pay their bills or even their own employees. They have turned to trying a raffle to determine which civil servants will receive their pay first. Employees will queue up to get paid and when the money runs out, those in the end of the line are out of luck. The first draw for the raffle took place on Friday, July 20th. Only 23 of the town’s 92 employees received their pay.

The mainstream press is simply not covering these issues. Federal governments continue to suppress free elections and free speech. In Spain, watch this one closely. Right now 6 out of 17 Spanish regional provinces are is serious budgetary crises. Since the federal Spanish government is itself is bankruptcy, there will be no white knight on the horizon.

Capital is fleeing everywhere, as it rightly should. Governments are in hot pursuit determined to destroy Western Civilization as if they confiscate every dime from the private sector this will somehow miraculously save the world. Capital outflows from Spain have been more than €41.3 billion ($50.7 billion) in May, quadrupled to the outflow one year ago according to figures released by the Spanish central bank. For the first five months of 2012, a total capital outflow has been about €163.

This massive capital outflow is the same pattern we saw when our computer forecast the collapse of Russia that created the Long-Term Capital Management debacle in September 1998. This capital outflow is stripping banks of deposits and was the reason behind the banking conglomerate, Bankia, having requested a bailout in May. The Spanish government ‘s response has been to try to punish capital leaving. They have imposed fines and criminal punishment as always since no0 government respect human rights when it comes to their pocket-book. The new restrictions imposed by Spain on capital are fine of €10,000 for taxpayers who do not report their foreign accounts; fines of €5,000 for each additional account; there can be no cash transactions greater than €2,500; and these restrictions apply to businesses as well as individuals. In other words, Spain is so desperate for money; they will destroy business with such restrictions.

Governments are out of control. This is the worst possible outcome we face globally. The United States has lowered the $10,000 reporting on the movement of cash to $3,000. They are going to cause a worldwide economic implosion of untold proportion. They are now trying to criminalize natural human behavior of protection ones self-interest from basically thugs. This is like saying the police can beat your wife or child and if you dare try to defend them, you go to jail for obstruction of justice. You cannot confiscate the wealth of any individual because you are fiscally irresponsible. This is like a landlord renting you an apartment and saying that at any time he can raise the rent if he spent too much money having a good time.

The individual is always screwed. In Iceland, mortgages are adjusted according to the currency fluctuations. If you borrow 1 million Icelandic króna and the currency declines by 50%, you now owe 2 million. Because the banks were brain-dead in their investments, now they have put that burden on the homeowner. People now owe more than what they paid for the house. Wages do not fluctuate in such a manner.

The Spanish “bailout” of €100 billion is a joke. This amount is nothing compared to what Spanish banks are drawing from the ECB at this time. Where the money is supposed to come from and how is this going to reverse the worldwide debt implosion? Spain asked Germany, for an additional €300 billion. Germany is being dragged down the rabbit hole for the Debt to GDP ratio is up to 90% thanks to all these EU bailouts. In reality, Moody’s has put the Germany on a negative watch and it could lose its AAA credit rating as was the case with France last year. The IMF is simply dead in the water.

The Sovereign Debt Crisis is brewing and we are looking at the complete meltdown of the global financial system. Keep in mind that in 1971, Nixon just closed the gold window. Nobody sat down and designed the economy as it functions today. The banks have become the harbingers of doom. The elimination of Glass-Steagall at the instigation of Goldman Sachs has placed the entire world economy at tremendous risk.

There can be only one solution other than default or hyperinflation, which both wipe-out all the pensions and savings of the working class while rights turn to just dust in the wind. We will present the only possible solution at the San Diego Conference (September 22-23^rd, 2012) with how to survive what could become the fall of Western Society as governments refuse to live within their means turning against the people to save the bankers.

Assets that are fixed and immovable are subject to confiscation and excessive taxation. This is where gold came in during the Great Depression and why so many US gold coins have survived – people just hoarded their wealth. As they say:

1)      Gold is the money of kings

2)      Silver is the money of the working class

3)      Barter is the money of peasants, but

4)      Debt is the money of slaves.

We have been warning that as long as the bankers hold exclusive power to sell government debt, we will be doomed. China has demanded to bypass the New York bankers and the Treasury now sells to them directly. This is the way it should be. The ONLY reason why there are primary dealers is because the US had no national debt until the Civil War. The government needed to sell debt to pay for the war. They then turned to the financial capital of the United States – Philadelphia.

Jay Cooke of Philadelphia was regarded as the P.T. Barnum of securities. He had established a network of buyers of bonds around the country using the railroads. The government turned to him to sell their debt for the Civil War. In this action, the practice of turning to the private banking sector to sell government debt began. This was at least understandable. Government had no debt and thus lacked the skill set to even sell debt. The current system of primary dealers was set up in 1960 with 18 dealers. The number of primary dealers grew to 46 in 1988, declined to 21 by 2007 and stands at 21 in October 2011. Other countries using this system of primary dealers are Canada, France, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom.

Primary dealers are no longer required. This affords way too much power to these bankers and places the nation at great risk. The entire Solomon Brothers debacle took place with Warren Buffett getting involved because they got caught rigging the US Treasury Auctions the same as the banks just got caught rigging the LIBOR market in Europe. Enough is enough. We need Glass-Steagall restored. Banks should not be borrowing from the Fed to trade and they should not be using other people’s money to trade. This is why the spread between borrowing and lending is at historic highs. They are pocketing huge profits at the expense of everyone else. If they want to be a hedge fund, give up the banking – one or the other. This is way too dangerous.

Therefore, we will be providing the only plausible solution at the San Diego Conference. What we are facing is tremendous upheaval. We cannot continue to borrow without end. The interest alone is crowding out everything. This is not a question of HYPERINFLATION as presented. The bankers are not willing to accept that any more than a default. They are demanding austerity, honoring of all debts, and the end result is STAGFLATION mixed with tremendous risk of civil unrest. With state & local governments unable to print currency, this will be the counter-balance against the HYPERINFLATION ideas that are being marketed. This is critical to understand. We are at the edge in the middle of nowhere. It is time we start paying attention to what is really unfolding before the hype misleads many and discourages most from buying gold when they should. Don’t worry. It is not fiat, lead bars in Fort Knox, not HYPERINFLATION we need to worry about. How about plain old fashioned extinction of society as we know it today? It is time to have some physical gold – just don’t listen to the nonsense.

INTERNATIONAL FORECASTING

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Institutional clients seeking the stand-alone systems to monitor the entire global portfolio are nearly ready. We will be providing those systems at $25 million annually.

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